The Prediction Markets

Bahrain Grand Prix: Driver Winner

Closed
Apr 19, 2026
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 19, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 222 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Oliver Bearman
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5349 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oliver Bearman
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 222 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: formula1.com

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Oliver Bearman

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Bahrain Grand Prix: Driver Winner". Oliver Bearman last traded at 0.1%. $27K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 19, 2026.

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix, scheduled for Apr 12, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 19, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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