The Prediction Markets

Ballon d'Or Winner 2027

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

Kylian Mbappe 26.5%

Next is Lamine Yamal at 25.6%. The venues differ most on Harry Kane (Polymarket 7.9%, Kalshi 33%), a 25-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Kylian Mbappe
26.5%
Polymarket 23%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 37%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kylian Mbappé
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kylian Mbappe
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$559
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Lamine Yamal
25.6%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 26%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lamine Yamal
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lamine Yamal
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$865
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Harry Kane
15.7%
Polymarket 7.9%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 33%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harry Kane
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Harry Kane
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Raphinha
13%
Polymarket 9%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 25%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphinha
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$412
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raphinha
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Michael Olise
7.9%
Polymarket 8.9%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Olise
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
8.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Olise
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Erling Haaland
5.4%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erling Haaland
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$437
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Erling Haaland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Desire Doue
4.9%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Desire Doue
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Desire Doue
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jude Bellingham
3.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jude Bellingham
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jude Bellingham
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Declan Rice
2.3%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Declan Rice
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Declan Rice
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Ousmane Dembele
2.2%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ousmane Dembélé
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ousmane Dembele
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Show 70 more outcomes
Vitinha
2.1%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vitinha
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$554
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vitinha
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Julian Alvarez
1.6%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julian Alvarez
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Julian Alvarez
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Rodri
1.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rodri
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rodri
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Bukayo Saka
1.2%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bukayo Saka
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bukayo Saka
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Fabian Ruiz
1.1%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fabian Ruiz
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fabian Ruiz
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

William Saliba
1.1%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
William Saliba
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
William Saliba
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Alexander Isak
1%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Isak
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander Isak
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Luis Diaz
1%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luis Diaz
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Luis Diaz
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Marc Cucurella
1%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marc Cucurella
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marc Cucurella
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Bruno Fernandes
1%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Fernandes
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Fernandes
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Cristiano Ronaldo
1%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cristiano Ronaldo
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$746
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cristiano Ronaldo
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
1%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Mohamed Salah
1%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mohamed Salah
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mohamed Salah
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Alisson Becker
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alisson Becker
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$148
Trade this on Kalshi
Achraf Hakimi
1%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Achraf Hakimi
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Achraf Hakimi
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Joao Neves
0.9%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
João Neves
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joao Neves
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Lautaro Martinez
0.9%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lautaro Martinez
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lautaro Martinez
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Lionel Messi
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Arda Guler
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arda Guler
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bradley Barcola
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bradley Barcola
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cole Palmer
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cole Palmer
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dani Olmo
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dani Olmo
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
David Raya
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Raya
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dayot Upamecano
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dayot Upamecano
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Emiliano Martinez
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emiliano Martinez
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Endrick
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Endrick
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Enzo Fernandez
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Enzo Fernandez
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Estevao
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Estevao
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Federico Valverde
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Federico Valverde
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ferran Torres
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ferran Torres
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Florian Wirtz
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Florian Wirtz
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gabriel Magalhaes
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Magalhaes
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gavi
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavi
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gianluigi Donnarumma
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gianluigi Donnarumma
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hugo Ekitike
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hugo Ekitike
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jamal Musiala
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jamal Musiala
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeremy Doku
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Doku
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joan Garcia
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joan Garcia
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joao Pedro
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joao Pedro
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Julian Quinones
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Julian Quinones
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kenan Yildiz
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kenan Yildiz
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lennart Karl
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lennart Karl
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Marcus Rashford
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marcus Rashford
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Marquinhos
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marquinhos
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Martin Odegaard
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Martin Odegaard
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Moises Caicedo
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moises Caicedo
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nico Paz
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nico Paz
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nico Williams
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nico Williams
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuno Mendes
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuno Mendes
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Omar Marmoush
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Omar Marmoush
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pau Cubarsi
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pau Cubarsi
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pedri
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pedri
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Phil Foden
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Phil Foden
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rafael Leao
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rafael Leao
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert Lewandowski
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Lewandowski
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sadio Mane
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sadio Mane
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Savinho
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Savinho
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott McTominay
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott McTominay
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Serhou Guirassy
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Serhou Guirassy
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Thibaut Courtois
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Thibaut Courtois
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tijjani Reijnders
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tijjani Reijnders
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Unai Simon
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Unai Simon
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Victor Osimhen
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Victor Osimhen
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Viktor Gyokeres
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Viktor Gyokeres
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Vinicius Junior
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vinicius Junior
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Warren Zaire-Emery
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Warren Zaire-Emery
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Willian Pacho
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Willian Pacho
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Xavi Simons
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xavi Simons
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Yan Diomande
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yan Diomande
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rayan Cherki
0.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rayan Cherki
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rayan Cherki
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Venue prices are 4 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: France Football, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kylian Mbappe
  • Lamine Yamal
  • Harry Kane

Live prices for Kylian Mbappe

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ballon d'Or Winner 2027". Kylian Mbappe leads at 26.5%. Next is Lamine Yamal at 25.6%. $13K has traded across 80 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the Ballon d'Or award for the 2027 Ballon d'Or. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by France Football and UEFA rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve to "Other". If the 2027 Ballon d'Or is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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