The Prediction Markets

Best AI this month

Closes
Nov 30, 2026, in 25 days
Traded
$100K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

Gemini 67.6%

Next is Claude at 26.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Gemini 67.6%Claude 26.5%ChatGPT 1.9%Grok 1%Kimi 1%2 others 2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Gemini
67.6%
Kalshi 69%(67.6% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gemini
Last price
69%
Fair, margin removed
67.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Claude
26.5%
Kalshi 27%(26.5% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Claude
Last price
27%
Fair, margin removed
26.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
ChatGPT
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
ChatGPT
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Grok
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grok
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kimi
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kimi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Muse
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Muse
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Qwen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Qwen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gemini
  • Claude
  • ChatGPT

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Best AI this month". Gemini leads at 67.6%. Next is Claude at 26.5%. $100K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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