The Prediction Markets

Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of November 21

Closes
Nov 17, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$34K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 min ago
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What the markets expect

FRESH - Lil Baby 99.3%

Next is Housewife at 6%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 9 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
FRESH - Lil Baby
99.3%
Polymarket 99.3%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
FRESH - Lil Baby
Last price
99.3%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
99¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$685
Trade this on Polymarket
Housewife
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Housewife
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Thriller
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Thriller
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Patient Zero
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patient Zero
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Boston
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Boston
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicole Kidman
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicole Kidman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sweet Action II - Jack Harlow
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sweet Action II - Jack Harlow
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Polymarket
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love - Olivia Rodrigo
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love - Olivia Rodrigo
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Polymarket
I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Polymarket
O My Beloved - Kings of Leon
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
O My Beloved - Kings of Leon
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Polymarket
Perfecth - Queens of the Stone Age
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Perfecth - Queens of the Stone Age
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Polymarket
The Black Parade - My Chemical Romance
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Parade - My Chemical Romance
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$67
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Billboard

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • FRESH - Lil Baby
  • Housewife
  • Thriller

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list FRESH - Lil Baby for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of November 21". FRESH - Lil Baby leads at 99.3%. Next is Housewife at 6%. $34K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 17, 2026.

Billboard updates the Billboard 200 albums chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then dated “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart dated “Week of November 21, 2026”. Albums will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more albums are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the albums' listed titles. This market will resolve to the album that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/) or through other official Billboard channels.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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