The Prediction Markets

California Governor Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$73K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 10M 95%

Next is Above 9.5M at 93%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 10M
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10M
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9.5M
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9.5M
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Volume
$28
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.5M
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.5M
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$367
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.9M
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.9M
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.5M
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.5M
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12M
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12M
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12.6M
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.6M
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.1M
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.1M
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
12.5M-13M
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
12.5M-13M
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
13M-13.5M
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
13M-13.5M
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 14.2M
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.2M
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$537
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.4M
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.4M
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.8M
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.8M
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Kalshi
14M-14.5M
11.9%
Polymarket 11.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $426 (4.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
14M-14.5M
Last price
11.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$426 (4.26x)
Volume
$983
Trade this on Polymarket
12M-12.5M
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
12M-12.5M
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$945
Trade this on Polymarket
14.5M+
10.2%
Polymarket 10.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
14.5M+
Last price
10.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
13.5M-14M
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
13.5M-14M
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
11M-11.5M
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $926 (9.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
11M-11.5M
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$926 (9.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
10.5M
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
10.5M
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
11.5M-12M
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
11.5M-12M
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$877
Trade this on Polymarket
10.5M-11M
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
10.5M-11M
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: California Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 10M
  • Above 9.5M
  • Above 10.5M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 10M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California Governor Election: Turnout". Above 10M leads at 95%. Next is Above 9.5M at 93%. $73K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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