The Prediction Markets

California Governor General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$73K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 10M 93.5%

Next is Above 10.5M at 92%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 10M
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10M
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.5M
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.5M
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$367
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9.5M
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 2 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9.5M
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
91¢
Volume
$28
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.9M
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.9M
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.5M
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.5M
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12M
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12M
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12.6M
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.6M
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.1M
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.1M
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
12.5M-13M
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
12.5M-13M
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
13M-13.5M
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
13M-13.5M
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 14.2M
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.2M
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$574
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.4M
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.4M
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
14.5M+
15.6%
Polymarket 15.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
14.5M+
Last price
15.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 14.8M
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.8M
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Kalshi
14M-14.5M
12.6%
Polymarket 12.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 24.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $407 (4.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
14M-14.5M
Last price
12.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
24.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$407 (4.07x)
Volume
$983
Trade this on Polymarket
12M-12.5M
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
12M-12.5M
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$945
Trade this on Polymarket
13.5M-14M
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
13.5M-14M
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
11M-11.5M
5.9%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $935 (9.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
11M-11.5M
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
10.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$935 (9.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
10.5M
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
10.5M
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
11.5M-12M
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
11.5M-12M
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$877
Trade this on Polymarket
10.5M-11M
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
10.5M-11M
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: California Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 10M
  • Above 10.5M
  • Above 9.5M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 10M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California Governor General Election: voter turnout". Above 10M leads at 93.5%. Next is Above 10.5M at 92%. $73K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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