The Prediction Markets

Claude 4.7 released by...?

Closed
Jun 30, 2026
Traded
$105K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 30, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 196 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
June 30
82.5%
Polymarket 82.5%polled, 4705 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30
Last price
82.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
May 31
76%
Polymarket 76%polled, 4705 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
May 31
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • June 30
  • May 31

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Claude 4.7 released by...?". June 30 last traded at 82.5%. Next is May 31 at 76%. $105K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic makes any Claude 4.7 model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude 4.7 refers to a product explicitly named Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.7, or a variant that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4.6, similar to the progression from Claude 4.2 to Claude 4.3. (e.g., Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.8, 4.9, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Claude 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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