The Prediction Markets

Core CPI MoM - November 2026

Closes
Dec 10, 2026, in 27 days
Traded
$224K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Above 0.0% 99%

Next is Above 0.1% at 89%. The venues differ most on 0.7%+ (Polymarket 3.2%, Kalshi 1%), a 2.1-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 0.0%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.1%
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, just nowBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.1%
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.2%
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, just nowBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.2%
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.2%
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.2%
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$544
Trade this on Polymarket
0.3%
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.3%
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 0.3%
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.3%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.4%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.4%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Polymarket
0.1%
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.1%
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.6%
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.6%
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Polymarket
0.5%
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.5%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Above 0.4%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.4%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.7%+Arb
1.5%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.7%+
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$67
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.6%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.1¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Above 0.5%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.7%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.7%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.8%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.8%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.9%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.9%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.0%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 0.7%+ on Kalshi at 1¢, sell on Polymarket at 1.1¢ (10 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi extends expiration after a federal-shutdown data delay, up to six months after the shutdown ends. Polymarket instead resolves to the most recent previous month's figures if the data is not released by the next scheduled CPI release.
  • Kalshi offers cumulative 'Above X%' threshold contracts, while Polymarket offers exact-value buckets and tail buckets. Only the pairs where the payoff matches are linked, namely Kalshi 'Above 0.1%' with Polymarket '≤0.1%' as opposite, and Kalshi 'Above 0.6%' with Polymarket '0.7%+' as same. Other Polymarket buckets have no single Kalshi equivalent.
  • Kalshi says 'increases by above X%' and relies on the BLS single-decimal value. Polymarket states one-decimal precision explicitly. Both use the rounded figure, so this is a minor wording difference.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bls.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi extends expiration after a federal-shutdown data delay, up to six months after the shutdown ends. Polymarket instead resolves to the most recent previous month's figures if the data is not released by the next scheduled CPI release.
  • Kalshi offers cumulative 'Above X%' threshold contracts, while Polymarket offers exact-value buckets and tail buckets. Only the pairs where the payoff matches are linked, namely Kalshi 'Above 0.1%' with Polymarket '≤0.1%' as opposite, and Kalshi 'Above 0.6%' with Polymarket '0.7%+' as same. Other Polymarket buckets have no single Kalshi equivalent.
  • Kalshi says 'increases by above X%' and relies on the BLS single-decimal value. Polymarket states one-decimal precision explicitly. Both use the rounded figure, so this is a minor wording difference.
  • Trading closes Dec 10, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 10, 2026, 1:25 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 0.0%
  • Above 0.1%
  • Above 0.2%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 0.0% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Core CPI MoM - November 2026". Above 0.0% leads at 99%. Next is Above 0.1% at 89%. $224K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 10, 2026.

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in November 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in November 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month). The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for November 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on December 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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