The Prediction Markets

Core CPI YoY - November 2026

Closes
Dec 10, 2026, in 27 days
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

2.9% 31.7%

Next is 2.8% at 28.4%. The venues differ most on 2.7% (Polymarket 8%, Kalshi 13%), a 5.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
2.9%
31.7%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.9%
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.9%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 32¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 37¢.

2.8%
28.4%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.8%
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.8%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 27¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 31¢.

3.0%
20.9%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0%
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.0%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$604
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 22¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 25¢.

2.7%
11.3%
Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.7%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$732
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.7%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

3.1%
6.8%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.1%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.1%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$259
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Exactly 2.2%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.2%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.2%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.2%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.3%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.3%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.4%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.4%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.5%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.5%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Exactly 3.6%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.6%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.7%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.7%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$118
Trade this on Kalshi
2.6%
4.2%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.6%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.6%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Exactly 2.3%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.3%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Kalshi
2.4%
3.2%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.4%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.4%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

2.5%
2.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.5%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

2.3%
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.3%
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$390
Trade this on Polymarket
3.2%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.2%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$355
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi rules text does not name a source (BLS) or specify seasonal adjustment, rounding precision, or a delay/fallback for late data. Polymarket specifies unadjusted BLS 12-month core CPI-U to one decimal.
  • Polymarket resolves to the most recent previous month's figures if November data is not released before the next CPI release; Kalshi's fallback is not stated.
  • Polymarket has tail buckets (≤2.3% and ≥3.2%) while Kalshi lists exact values 2.2%, 2.3%, 3.2%-3.7% individually, so the tails are not linked one-to-one.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bls.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi rules text does not name a source (BLS) or specify seasonal adjustment, rounding precision, or a delay/fallback for late data. Polymarket specifies unadjusted BLS 12-month core CPI-U to one decimal.
  • Polymarket resolves to the most recent previous month's figures if November data is not released before the next CPI release; Kalshi's fallback is not stated.
  • Polymarket has tail buckets (≤2.3% and ≥3.2%) while Kalshi lists exact values 2.2%, 2.3%, 3.2%-3.7% individually, so the tails are not linked one-to-one.
  • Trading closes Dec 10, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 10, 2026, 1:29 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 2.9%
  • 2.8%
  • 3.0%

Live prices for 2.9%

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Core CPI YoY - November 2026". 2.9% leads at 31.7%. Next is 2.8% at 28.4%. $13K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 10, 2026.

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending November 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in November 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for November 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on December 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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