The Prediction Markets

Dancing with the Stars · Episode 10 Elimination

Closes
Nov 11, 2026, in 6 days
Traded
$139K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
6 h ago
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What the markets expect

Ezra Frech 39.9%

Next is Tatyana Ali at 19.3%. The venues differ most on Ezra Frech (Polymarket 62%, Kalshi 1%), a 61-point gap.

Ezra Frech 39.9%Tatyana Ali 19.3%Amber Glenn 9.7%Maura Higgins 9.5%Harry Shum Jr. 7.8%6 others 13.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ezra Frech
39.9%
Polymarket 62%(58.1% fair)polled, 6 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ezra Frech
Last price
62%
Fair, margin removed
58.1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ezra Frech
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$812
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Tatyana Ali
19.3%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 29%(28% fair)polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tatyana Ali
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$587
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tatyana Ali
Last price
29%
Fair, margin removed
28%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Amber Glenn
9.7%
Polymarket 12%(11.2% fair)polled, 6 h agoKalshi 9%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amber Glenn
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
11.2%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Amber Glenn
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$434
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Maura Higgins
9.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 42%(40.6% fair)polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maura Higgins
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maura Higgins
Last price
42%
Fair, margin removed
40.6%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Harry Shum Jr.
7.8%
Polymarket 17.6%(16.4% fair)polled, 6 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harry Shum Jr.
Last price
17.6%
Fair, margin removed
16.4%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Harry Shum Jr.
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Connor Wood
7.7%
Polymarket 7.9%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 12%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Connor Wood
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
7.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Connor Wood
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$960
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jenna Dewan
4%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 7%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jenna Dewan
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jenna Dewan
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$538
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

None
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
None
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$710
Trade this on Kalshi
Ciara Miller
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ciara Miller
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Conner Leavitt
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Conner Leavitt
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$761
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Giada De Laurentiis
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Giada De Laurentiis
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$779
Trade this on Polymarket
Guillermo Rodriguez
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guillermo Rodriguez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jackson Olson
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jackson Olson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Julia Stiles
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julia Stiles
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sarah Jane Nader
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Jane Nader
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$626
Trade this on Polymarket
Taylor Hanson
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Hanson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tyler Cameron
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyler Cameron
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$437
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 6 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 11, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 11, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ezra Frech
  • Tatyana Ali
  • Amber Glenn

Live prices for Ezra Frech

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Dancing with the Stars · Episode 10 Elimination". Ezra Frech leads at 39.9%. Next is Tatyana Ali at 19.3%. $139K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 11, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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