The Prediction Markets

Drake: Highest daily view count (November 2026)

Closes
Dec 4, 2026, in 29 days
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 11.5M 99%

Next is Above 11M at 98%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 11.5M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.5M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11M
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11M
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.25M
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.25M
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12M
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12M
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11.75M
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11.75M
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14M
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14M
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12.25M
76.5%
Kalshi 76.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.25M
Last price
76.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12.5M
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.5M
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
14.5M
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
14.5M
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$85
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 12.75M
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.75M
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 12 more outcomes
Above 13M
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13M
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.25M
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.25M
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.5M
60.5%
Kalshi 60.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.5M
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.25M
53.5%
Kalshi 53.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.25M
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.75M
52.5%
Kalshi 52.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.75M
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.5M
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.5M
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.75M
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.75M
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15M
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15M
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
14.75M
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
14.75M
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$242
Trade this on Polymarket
15.5M
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
15.5M
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$377
Trade this on Polymarket
15M
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
15M
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Polymarket
15.25M
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
15.25M
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$520
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: YouTube Charts

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 11.5M
  • Above 11M
  • Above 11.25M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 11.5M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Drake: Highest daily view count (November 2026)". Above 11.5M leads at 99%. Next is Above 11M at 98%. $8K has traded across 22 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 4, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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