The Prediction Markets

Fed decisions December 2026 to March 2027?

Closes
Mar 17, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
12 min ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Hike-Hike-Hike 27.6%

Next is Hike-Hike-Hike at 23.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Hike-Hike-Hike 27.6%Hike-Hike-Hike 23.6%Hike-Hike-Pause 22%Hike-Hike-Pause 14.5%Hike-Pause-Cut 8.3%Pause-Pause-Cut 4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 12 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Hike-Hike-Hike
27.6%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hike-Hike-Hike
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$414
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike-Hike-Hike
23.6%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hike-Pause-Hike
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$406
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike-Hike-Pause
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hike-Hike-Pause
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$716
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike-Hike-Pause
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hike-Pause-Pause
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$640
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike-Pause-Cut
8.3%
Polymarket 8.3%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hike-Pause-Cut
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Polymarket
Pause-Pause-Cut
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pause-Pause-Cut
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$520
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hike-Hike-Hike
  • Hike-Hike-Hike
  • Hike-Hike-Pause

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fed decisions December 2026 to March 2027?". Hike-Hike-Hike leads at 27.6%. Next is Hike-Hike-Hike at 23.6%. $3K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 17, 2027.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 8 to 9, 2026; January 26 to 27, 2027; and March 16 to 17, 2027. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Emergency rate moves are explicitly excluded from this market. Any hike or cut to the target federal funds rate announced outside the three regularly scheduled meetings listed above, including at any unscheduled or emergency FOMC meeting, will not be considered and will not count as one of the three decisions. Each scheduled meeting's decision is measured against the upper bound in effect immediately before that meeting, including any emergency change made since the previous meeting, regardless of whether the scheduled decision reverses an emergency change. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets
Fed decisions December 2026 to March 2027? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets