Top of book
ConnectingWaiting for the first live quote…
Yes 48.5%
Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
Each venue’s resting orders for the Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Waiting for the first live quote…
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
Loading both order books…
Loading every outcome’s book…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
Live prediction market odds for "Fourth Jensen Huang affair reported by December 31?". Yes leads at 48.5%. $3K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
On November 8, 2026, Jensen Huang acknowledged in a message to NVIDIA employees that he had been unfaithful to his wife; news reports have identified the woman involved as Alice Huang. On November 11, 2026, The New York Times reported that Huang had also had an affair with Kimberly Powell, NVIDIA’s vice president of healthcare; Huang, Powell and NVIDIA have not confirmed that report. On November 12, 2026, Reuters reported that Huang had an intimate relationship with a second NVIDIA employee, whom it did not name. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a qualifying outlet publishes a qualifying report of an affair between Jensen Huang and any person other than Alice Huang, Kimberly Powell or the NVIDIA employee reported by Reuters. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An affair refers to a romantic or sexual relationship outside Jensen Huang’s marriage. The affair itself may have taken place at any time during his marriage; only the timing of the report matters. The qualifying outlets are The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Financial Times, Reuters, the Associated Press, CNN, Bloomberg, ABC News, CBS News, NBC News and Fox News. Only news articles published on an outlet’s own platform qualify; editorials, opinion pieces, columns, broadcast or video segments, podcasts, social media posts and sponsored content will not qualify. A report will qualify if it meets any of the following: 1. presents the affair as fact; 2. reports the affair based on the outlet’s own sourcing, such as people familiar with the matter, documents or recordings (as in The New York Times’ November 11, 2026 report on Kimberly Powell); 3. reports an alleged affair between Jensen Huang and a specific person other than Alice Huang, Kimberly Powell or the employee reported by Reuters, regardless of whether the outlet presents the allegation as credible; or 4. reports that Jensen Huang, directly or through his official or legal representatives, has acknowledged such an affair. Reports under 1 or 2 qualify whether or not the person involved is named, provided they clearly distinguish that person from Alice Huang, Kimberly Powell and the unnamed NVIDIA employee reported by Reuters. A report does so if it, or other reporting from a qualifying outlet, makes clear that the person is not that employee (e.g., by describing them as a third NVIDIA employee with whom Huang had a relationship, or as someone who has never worked at NVIDIA), or if it confirms that Huang had affairs with at least four people. The following will not qualify: (i) reports that name or otherwise identify the NVIDIA employee reported by Reuters; (ii) reports about any person, named or unnamed, that do not make clear, on their own or together with other reporting from a qualifying outlet, that the person is not the NVIDIA employee reported by Reuters; (iii) general references to Huang’s infidelity (e.g., “Huang has been unfaithful for a while”); and (iv) allegations about an unnamed person that the outlet only relays from others, such as social media posts or other outlets’ reporting. A report under 4 qualifies only if it reports an acknowledgment, including one in private testimony that has been made public, that names a person other than Alice Huang and Kimberly Powell who is distinguished from the employee reported by Reuters as described above, or makes clear that Huang was unfaithful with someone other than them (for example, by acknowledging affairs with four or more people). Reports of acknowledgments that are not explicit and unambiguous, or that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest or immediately clarified as not being genuine, will not qualify. A qualifying report must be first published between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Reports that only reference or link to articles published before market creation will not qualify unless they themselves meet the requirements above. An article first published before market creation will qualify only if a later update first makes it meet the requirements above, in which case the time of the update governs. The resolution source for this market will be reporting from the qualifying outlets; for acknowledgments, official information from Jensen Huang or his official or legal representatives may also be used.
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.