The Prediction Markets

Gemini Helix released by...?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 15 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

December 31 73.5%

Next is December 15 at 54.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
December 31
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$119
Trade this on Polymarket
December 15
54.5%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 15
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 30
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31
  • December 15
  • November 30

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Gemini Helix released by...?". December 31 leads at 73.5%. Next is December 15 at 54.5%. $2K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

ArtificialWatch's Gemini 4 Flash tracker reports that on November 10, 2026, a public side project by a Google engineer mapped Gemini's Flash-Lite tier to the model identifier "gemini-4-helix," alongside "gemini-4-hydrogen" for the Flash tier (https://artificialwatch.com/model/gemini-4-flash). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Helix" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Helix" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Helix, Gemini 4 Helix, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini Flash-Lite model (e.g., Gemini 4 Flash-Lite) or an update to an existing Gemini model (including an update released under that model's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by the listed date to be the same model previously codenamed "Helix". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Helix will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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