Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Above 5.9% 60%
Next is Above 6.1% at 58.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 5.9%60%Not listed60%20¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo askAbove 5.9%60%Kalshi 60%polled, 1 min ago
Above 5.9%
60%
Not listed
60%
20¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Above 5.9%
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 1 min ago
Above 6.1%58.5%Not listed58.5%20¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 1 min ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Above 6.1%58.5%Kalshi 58.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Above 6.1%
58.5%
Not listed
58.5%
20¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Above 6.1%
58.5%
Kalshi 58.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.1%
- Last price
- 58.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
Above 6.2%58.5%Not listed58.5%20¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 1 min ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Above 6.2%58.5%Kalshi 58.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Above 6.2%
58.5%
Not listed
58.5%
20¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Above 6.2%
58.5%
Kalshi 58.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.2%
- Last price
- 58.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
Above 6.5%44.5%Not listed44.5%— bid, 89¢ askpolled, 1 min ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Above 6.5%44.5%Kalshi 44.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 6.5%
44.5%
Not listed
44.5%
— bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 6.5%
44.5%
Kalshi 44.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.5%
- Last price
- 44.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
Above 6.6%44.5%Not listed44.5%— bid, 89¢ askpolled, 1 min ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Above 6.6%44.5%Kalshi 44.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 6.6%
44.5%
Not listed
44.5%
— bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 6.6%
44.5%
Kalshi 44.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.6%
- Last price
- 44.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
Above 6.7%44.5%Not listed44.5%— bid, 89¢ askpolled, 1 min ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Above 6.7%44.5%Kalshi 44.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 6.7%
44.5%
Not listed
44.5%
— bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 6.7%
44.5%
Kalshi 44.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.7%
- Last price
- 44.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
Above 6.8%44.5%Not listed44.5%— bid, 89¢ askpolled, 1 min ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Above 6.8%44.5%Kalshi 44.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 6.8%
44.5%
Not listed
44.5%
— bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 6.8%
44.5%
Kalshi 44.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.8%
- Last price
- 44.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
4.1%42%42%39¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed45¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $222 (2.22x)4.1%42%Polymarket 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
4.1%
42%
42%
39¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
45¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
4.1%
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.1%
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $2K
4.2%36%36%34¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed38¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $263 (2.63x)4.2%36%Polymarket 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
4.2%
36%
36%
34¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
38¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
4.2%
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.2%
- Last price
- 36%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $645
Above 6.0%35%Not listed35%21¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 1 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Above 6.0%35%Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Above 6.0%
35%
Not listed
35%
21¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Above 6.0%
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.0%
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $400
Show 9 more outcomesHide 9 outcomes
Above 6.3%18%Not listed18%13¢ bid, 92¢ askpolled, 1 min ago92¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)Above 6.3%18%Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Above 6.3%
18%
Not listed
18%
13¢ bid, 92¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
92¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Above 6.3%
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.3%
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 92¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
- Volume
- $396
4.0%14%14%10¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed18¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $556 (5.56x)4.0%14%Polymarket 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
4.0%
14%
14%
10¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
18¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
4.0%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.0%
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $823
4.3%9.5%9.5%8¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed11¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $909 (9.09x)4.3%9.5%Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
4.3%
9.5%
9.5%
8¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
11¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
4.3%
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.3%
- Last price
- 9.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $633
Above 6.4%8%Not listed8%— bid, 75¢ askpolled, 1 min ago75¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $133 (1.33x)Above 6.4%8%Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Above 6.4%
8%
Not listed
8%
— bid, 75¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
75¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Above 6.4%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.4%
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $509
3.9%1.8%1.8%0.3¢ bid, 3.3¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed3.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)3.9%1.8%Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
3.9%
1.8%
1.8%
0.3¢ bid, 3.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
3.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
3.9%
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3.9%
- Last price
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,030 (30.3x)
- Volume
- $348
4.4%1.1%1.1%0.3¢ bid, 1.9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed1.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)4.4%1.1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
4.4%
1.1%
1.1%
0.3¢ bid, 1.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
1.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
4.4%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.4%
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,263 (52.6x)
- Volume
- $373
3.8%1.1%1.1%0.2¢ bid, 1.9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed1.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)3.8%1.1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
3.8%
1.1%
1.1%
0.2¢ bid, 1.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
1.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
3.8%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3.8%
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,263 (52.6x)
- Volume
- $342
4.5%0.6%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)4.5%0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
4.5%
0.6%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
4.5%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.5%
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $320
4.6%0.6%0.6%0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)4.6%0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
4.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
4.6%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.6%
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $372
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: bls.gov
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 5.9%
- Above 6.1%
- Above 6.2%
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Above 5.9% for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Germany unemployment rate in November". Above 5.9% leads at 60%. Next is Above 6.1% at 58.5%. $7K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 27, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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