The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Winner: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Closes
Jan 10, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$26K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

Andrew Scott 31.6%

Next is Matt Damon at 30.7%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Andrew Scott 31.6%Matt Damon 30.7%Robert Pattinson 6.1%Jaafar Jackson 3.5%Pedro Pascal 3.5%10 others 24.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Andrew Scott
31.6%
Kalshi 36%(31.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
36%
Fair, margin removed
31.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Matt Damon
30.7%
Kalshi 35%(30.7% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
35%
Fair, margin removed
30.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert Pattinson
6.1%
Kalshi 7%(6.1% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jaafar Jackson
3.5%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jaafar Jackson
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pedro Pascal
3.5%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert Aramayo
3.5%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Aramayo
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sebastian Stan
3.5%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
John Turturro
2.6%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Turturro
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh O’Connor
2.6%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh O’Connor
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sul Kyung-gu
2.6%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sul Kyung-gu
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Timothée Chalamet
2.6%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Emmanuel Macchia
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emmanuel Macchia
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Guitarricadelafuente
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Gosling
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Andrew Scott
  • Matt Damon
  • Robert Pattinson

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Winner: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama". Andrew Scott leads at 31.6%. Next is Matt Damon at 30.7%. $26K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 10, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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