The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Winner: Best Actress in a Limited Series

Closes
Jan 10, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$28K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

Florence Pugh 42.4%

Next is Sally Field at 25.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Florence Pugh 42.4%Sally Field 25.5%Carey Mulligan 10.4%Sarah Pidgeon 5.7%Tessa Thompson 4.7%6 others 11.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Florence Pugh
42.4%
Kalshi 45%(42.5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Florence Pugh
Last price
45%
Fair, margin removed
42.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sally Field
25.5%
Kalshi 27%(25.5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sally Field
Last price
27%
Fair, margin removed
25.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Carey Mulligan
10.4%
Kalshi 11%(10.4% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carey Mulligan
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
10.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Kalshi
Sarah Pidgeon
5.7%
Kalshi 6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sarah Pidgeon
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Kalshi
Tessa Thompson
4.7%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tessa Thompson
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ella Beatty
3.8%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ella Beatty
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Linda Cardellini
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Linda Cardellini
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rebecca Hall
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rebecca Hall
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Amy Adams
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amy Adams
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Odessa A’zion
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Odessa A’zion
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$993
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Florence Pugh
  • Sally Field
  • Carey Mulligan

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Winner: Best Actress in a Limited Series". Florence Pugh leads at 42.4%. Next is Sally Field at 25.5%. $28K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 10, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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