The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Winner: Best Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Closes
Jan 10, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

Jean Smart 54.5%

Next is Elle Fanning at 19.8%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Jean Smart 54.5%Elle Fanning 19.8%Ayo Edebiri 5.8%Lisa Kudrow 5%Jenna Ortega 2.5%9 others 12.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Jean Smart
54.5%
Kalshi 66%(54.5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jean Smart
Last price
66%
Fair, margin removed
54.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Elle Fanning
19.8%
Kalshi 24%(19.8% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elle Fanning
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
19.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ayo Edebiri
5.8%
Kalshi 7%(5.8% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ayo Edebiri
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Lisa Kudrow
5%
Kalshi 6%(5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lisa Kudrow
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Jenna Ortega
2.5%
Kalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jenna Ortega
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$997
Trade this on Kalshi
Natasha Lyonne
2.5%
Kalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Natasha Lyonne
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$397
Trade this on Kalshi
Hannah Einbinder
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hannah Einbinder
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$651
Trade this on Kalshi
Kristen Bell
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kristen Bell
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Kalshi
Quinta Brunson
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Quinta Brunson
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$651
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Keke Palmer
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keke Palmer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Kalshi
Kristen Wiig
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kristen Wiig
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$697
Trade this on Kalshi
Rinko Kikuchi
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rinko Kikuchi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$697
Trade this on Kalshi
Selena Gomez
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Selena Gomez
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$697
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jean Smart
  • Elle Fanning
  • Ayo Edebiri

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Winner: Best Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy". Jean Smart leads at 54.5%. Next is Elle Fanning at 19.8%. $17K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 10, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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