The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Winner: Best Director

Closes
Jan 10, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$65K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
12 min ago
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What the markets expect

Christopher Nolan 57.8%

Next is Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo at 23%. The venues differ most on Olivia Wilde (Polymarket 4.1%, Kalshi 14%), a 10.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 16 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Christopher Nolan
57.8%
Polymarket 60%polled, 16 min agoKalshi 51%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 16 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 51¢ and selling on Polymarket at 59¢ nets 800 bps before fees.

Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Lance Oppenheim
12.8%
Polymarket 12.8%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 14.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $694 (6.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lance Oppenheim
Last price
12.8%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
14.4¢
Sell Yes
11.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$694 (6.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Denis Villeneuve
12.3%
Polymarket 15%polled, 16 min agoKalshi 9.5%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denis Villeneuve
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Denis Villeneuve
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 16 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 18¢.

Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Olivia Wilde
7.5%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 16 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$632
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 16 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.8¢.

Paweł Pawlikowski
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paweł Pawlikowski
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tony Gilroy
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tony Gilroy
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$619
Trade this on Kalshi
Martin McDonagh
4.2%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 16 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Martin McDonagh
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$956
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Martin McDonagh
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 16 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.7¢.

Alejandro G. Iñárritu
3.7%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 16 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 16 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.5¢.

Show 15 more outcomes
Cristian Mungiu
3.2%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 16 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cristian Mungiu
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$715
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cristian Mungiu
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 16 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

Phil Lord or Christopher Miller
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phil Lord or Christopher Miller
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tie
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
0.7%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 16 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$702
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$177
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 16 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

Aaron Sorkin
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Sorkin
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$879
Trade this on Polymarket
Joel Coen
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joel Coen
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$87
Trade this on Polymarket
Peter Farrelly
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peter Farrelly
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Steven Spielberg
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steven Spielberg
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$873
Trade this on Polymarket
David Fincher
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Fincher
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrew Haigh
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Haigh
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Polymarket
Jesse Eisenberg
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Eisenberg
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$864
Trade this on Polymarket
Jordan Firstman
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Firstman
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$688
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Leigh
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Leigh
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$155
Trade this on Polymarket
Bassam Tariq
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bassam Tariq
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Polymarket
David O. Russell
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
David O. Russell
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$683
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 16 min old: Christopher Nolan asks 51¢ on Kalshi and bids 59¢ on Polymarket (800 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Christopher Nolan
  • Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo
  • Lance Oppenheim

Live prices for Christopher Nolan

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Winner: Best Director". Christopher Nolan leads at 57.8%. Next is Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo at 23%. $65K has traded across 25 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 10, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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