The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Winner: Best Motion Picture - Drama

Closes
Jan 10, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$37K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

The Odyssey 42%

Next is La Bola Negra at 35%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

The Odyssey 42%La Bola Negra 35%Wildwood 5%Fjord 4%All of a Sudden 2%9 others 12%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
The Odyssey
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
La Bola Negra
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wildwood
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fjord
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
All of a Sudden
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dune: Part Three
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Elsinore
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
I Play Rocky
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fatherland
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Obsession
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Possible Love
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Woman Unknown
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Woman Unknown
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • La Bola Negra
  • Wildwood

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Winner: Best Motion Picture - Drama". The Odyssey leads at 42%. Next is La Bola Negra at 35%. $37K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 10, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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