The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Winner: Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

Closes
Jan 10, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$70K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

Wild Horse Nine 36.7%

Next is The Debut at 14.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Wild Horse Nine 36.7%The Debut 14.5%The Invite 10.3%Project Hail Mary 9.4%Tender Loving Care 9.4%10 others 19.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Wild Horse Nine
36.7%
Kalshi 43%(36.8% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
43%
Fair, margin removed
36.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Debut
14.5%
Kalshi 17%(14.5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
14.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Invite
10.3%
Kalshi 12%(10.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
10.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Project Hail Mary
9.4%
Kalshi 11%(9.4% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
9.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tender Loving Care
9.4%
Kalshi 11%(9.4% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tender Loving Care
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
9.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
5.1%
Kalshi 6%(5.1% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Club Kid
4.3%
Kalshi 5%(4.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Obsession
3.4%
Kalshi 4%(3.4% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Digger
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
I Play Rocky
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Primetime
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Primetime
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Devil Wears Prada 2
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Drama
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Drama
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wild Horse Nine
  • The Debut
  • The Invite

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

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Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Winner: Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy". Wild Horse Nine leads at 36.7%. Next is The Debut at 14.5%. $70K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 10, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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