The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Winner: Best Screenplay

Closes
Jan 10, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Wild Horse Nine 31.8%

Next is La Bola Negra at 17.1%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Wild Horse Nine 31.8%La Bola Negra 17.1%The Invite 13.1%The Debut 6.5%The Odyssey 5.3%6 others 26.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Wild Horse Nine
31.8%
Kalshi 39%(31.8% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
39%
Fair, margin removed
31.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
La Bola Negra
17.1%
Kalshi 21%(17.1% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
21%
Fair, margin removed
17.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
The Invite
13.1%
Kalshi 16%(13.1% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
13.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
The Debut
6.5%
Kalshi 8%(6.5% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Odyssey
5.3%
Kalshi 6.5%(5.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
6.5%
Fair, margin removed
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fjord
4.9%
Kalshi 6%(4.9% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
All of a Sudden
4.5%
Kalshi 5.5%(4.5% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Elsinore
4.5%
Kalshi 5.5%(4.5% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Possible Love
4.5%
Kalshi 5.5%(4.5% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
4.5%
Kalshi 5.5%(4.5% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Project Hail Mary
3.3%
Kalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wild Horse Nine
  • La Bola Negra
  • The Invite

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Winner: Best Screenplay". Wild Horse Nine leads at 31.8%. Next is La Bola Negra at 17.1%. $6K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 10, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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