The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Winner: Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

Closes
Jan 10, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$85K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

Paul Giamatti 23.1%

Next is Guitarricadelafuente at 15.5%. The venues differ most on Andrew Garfield (Polymarket 22%, Kalshi 5.5%), a 17-point gap.

Paul Giamatti 23.1%Guitarricadelafuente 15.5%Andrew Garfield 10.7%Sam Rockwell 5.9%Robert Pattinson 5.7%23 others 39.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Paul Giamatti
23.1%
Polymarket 31.5%(25.5% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 24%(17.1% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
31.5%
Fair, margin removed
25.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
17.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Guitarricadelafuente
15.5%
Polymarket 17.6%(14.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 25%(17.8% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 18.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $549 (5.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
17.6%
Fair, margin removed
14.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
18.2¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$549 (5.49x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
25%
Fair, margin removed
17.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Andrew Garfield
10.7%
Polymarket 22%(17.8% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 5.5%(3.9% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
17.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
3.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Sam Rockwell
5.9%
Polymarket 8.2%(6.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 7.5%(5.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
8.2%
Fair, margin removed
6.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
7.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
7.5%
Fair, margin removed
5.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Robert Pattinson
5.7%
Polymarket 7.6%(6.1% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 7.5%(5.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
7.6%
Fair, margin removed
6.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
7.5%
Fair, margin removed
5.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

John Goodman
5%
Polymarket 4.9%(3.9% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 12%(8.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
4.9%
Fair, margin removed
3.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
8.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$78
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Skyler Gisondo
4.9%
Kalshi 7%(5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Skylar Gisondo
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Edward Norton
4.6%
Polymarket 4.5%(3.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 7%(5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
4.5%
Fair, margin removed
3.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

John Leguizamo
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%(3.7% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 7%(5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
4.6%
Fair, margin removed
3.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$833
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Tie
3.5%
Kalshi 5%(3.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
3.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 18 more outcomes
Guy Pearce
3%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 7.5%(5.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$862
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
7.5%
Fair, margin removed
5.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Colman Domingo
2.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 7.5%(5.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$453
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
7.5%
Fair, margin removed
5.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jeremy Strong
2.8%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 7.5%(5.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
7.5%
Fair, margin removed
5.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Tom Holland
1.8%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miles Teller
1%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Polymarket
Steve Buscemi
0.8%
Polymarket 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$313
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Fassbender
0.7%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$449
Trade this on Polymarket
Adam Scott
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$329
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniel Craig
0.6%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Craig
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$304
Trade this on Polymarket
Channing Tatum
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$423
Trade this on Polymarket
Skyler Gisondo
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Skyler Gisondo
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$243
Trade this on Polymarket
Jesse Plemons
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$312
Trade this on Polymarket
Riz Ahmed
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Polymarket
Himesh Patel
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Himesh Patel
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
James Ortiz
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Ortiz
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$304
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert De Niro
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert De Niro
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$294
Trade this on Polymarket
Charles Melton
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Travis Scott
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Travis Scott
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$497
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 4 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Paul Giamatti
  • Guitarricadelafuente
  • Andrew Garfield

Live prices for Paul Giamatti

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Winner: Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture". Paul Giamatti leads at 23.1%. Next is Guitarricadelafuente at 15.5%. $85K has traded across 28 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 10, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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