The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Winner: Best Supporting Actor on TV

Closes
Jan 10, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$172K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

Guitarricadelafuente 50.5%

Next is Andrew Garfield at 49.8%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Guitarricadelafuente
50.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 17.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 18.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $549 (5.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
17.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
18.2¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$549 (5.49x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrew Garfield
49.8%
Polymarket 83%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 22%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Leguizamo
47.6%
Polymarket 62%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 4.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$833
Trade this on Polymarket
Paul Giamatti
47.2%
Polymarket 94.5%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 31.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
94.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$790
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Harbour
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Harbour
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Edward Norton
37.1%
Polymarket 48%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 4.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sam Rockwell
25.6%
Polymarket 74%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 8.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
7.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stephen Root
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Root
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Colman Domingo
14.7%
Polymarket 27%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$453
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$866
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Robert Pattinson
14.4%
Polymarket 35%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 7.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 26 more outcomes
Steve Buscemi
13.4%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$313
Trade this on Polymarket
Riz Ahmed
12.1%
Polymarket 16%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 0.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Polymarket
John Goodman
11.4%
Polymarket 13.7%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 4.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
13.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
14.3¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$699 (6.99x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jason Bateman
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jason Bateman
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$815
Trade this on Kalshi
Skyler Gisondo
8%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Skyler Gisondo
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$824
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Skyler Gisondo
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$243
Trade this on Polymarket
Patrick Ball
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Ball
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$815
Trade this on Kalshi
Richard Gadd
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Richard Gadd
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$815
Trade this on Kalshi
Shawn Hatosy
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shawn Hatosy
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$815
Trade this on Kalshi
Paul W. Downs
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paul W. Downs
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$815
Trade this on Kalshi
Antonio Banderas
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Antonio Banderas
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$357
Trade this on Polymarket
James Ortiz
4.6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Ortiz
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
James Ortiz
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$304
Trade this on Polymarket
Charles Melton
4.5%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 10%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jeremy Strong
4.1%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Polymarket
Nick Offerman
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nick Offerman
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert De Niro
3.9%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert De Niro
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$842
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Robert De Niro
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$294
Trade this on Polymarket
Adam Scott
3.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 0.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$329
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Holland
3%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 2.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Himesh Patel
3%
Polymarket 4%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Himesh Patel
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Himesh Patel
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Fassbender
3%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 0.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$822
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$449
Trade this on Polymarket
Miles Teller
2.8%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 1.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Polymarket
Channing Tatum
2.5%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$193
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$423
Trade this on Polymarket
Guy Pearce
2.5%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 0.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$632
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$862
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniel Craig
2.4%
Polymarket 3%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 0.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Craig
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Craig
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$304
Trade this on Polymarket
Tie
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jesse Plemons
1.6%
Polymarket 2%polled, 4 h agoPolymarket 0.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$312
Trade this on Polymarket
Travis Scott
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Travis Scott
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$497
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 4 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Guitarricadelafuente
  • Andrew Garfield
  • John Leguizamo

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Guitarricadelafuente for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Winner: Best Supporting Actor on TV". Guitarricadelafuente leads at 50.5%. Next is Andrew Garfield at 49.8%. $172K has traded across 36 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 10, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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