The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Winner: Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Closes
Jan 10, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$68K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

Anne Hathaway 33.7%

Next is Amanda Seyfried at 17.1%. The venues differ most on Samantha Morton (Polymarket 4.8%, Kalshi 14%), a 9.3-point gap.

Anne Hathaway 33.7%Amanda Seyfried 17.1%Penélope Cruz 9.6%Tao Okamoto 5.1%Samantha Morton 5%15 others 29.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Anne Hathaway
33.7%
Polymarket 45%(35.7% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 48%(28.8% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
45%
Fair, margin removed
35.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
48%
Fair, margin removed
28.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Amanda Seyfried
17.1%
Polymarket 21.8%(17.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amanda Seyfried
Last price
21.8%
Fair, margin removed
17.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Penélope Cruz
9.6%
Polymarket 11%(8.7% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 18%(10.8% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
8.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
10.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Tao Okamoto
5.1%
Polymarket 5.9%(4.7% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 9%(5.4% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $962 (9.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
5.9%
Fair, margin removed
4.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10.4¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$962 (9.62x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Samantha Morton
5%
Polymarket 4.8%(3.8% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 14%(8.4% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
4.8%
Fair, margin removed
3.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$461
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
8.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$168
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Kate O'Flynn
4.3%
Polymarket 6.3%(5% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 6%(3.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kate O'Flynn
Last price
6.3%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$562
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kate O’Flynn
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
3.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Sandra Hüller
3.6%
Polymarket 4.7%(3.7% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 6%(3.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
4.7%
Fair, margin removed
3.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$975
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
3.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Esmé Creed-Miles
3.6%
Kalshi 6%(3.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Esmé Creed-Miles
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
3.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Glenn Close
3.6%
Kalshi 6%(3.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Glenn Close
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
3.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Merritt Wever
3.6%
Kalshi 6%(3.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merritt Wever
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
3.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Tie
3.6%
Kalshi 6%(3.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
3.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mariana di Girolamo
2.4%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 6%(3.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mariana di Girolamo
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$663
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mariana Di Girolamo
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
3.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Olivia Colman
1.9%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 6%(3.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$260
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
3.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Inde Navarrette
1.2%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Zendaya
0.9%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$554
Trade this on Polymarket
Gemma Chan
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$480
Trade this on Polymarket
Margaret Qualley
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Margaret Qualley
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$597
Trade this on Polymarket
Danielle Deadwyler
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danielle Deadwyler
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$540
Trade this on Polymarket
Isabella Rossellini
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Isabella Rossellini
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$368
Trade this on Polymarket
Parker Posey
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Parker Posey
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$590
Trade this on Polymarket
Betty Gilpin
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Betty Gilpin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$588
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 4 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Anne Hathaway
  • Amanda Seyfried
  • Penélope Cruz

Live prices for Anne Hathaway

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Winner: Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture". Anne Hathaway leads at 33.7%. Next is Amanda Seyfried at 17.1%. $68K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 10, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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