The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Winner: Best Supporting Actress on TV

Closes
Jan 10, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$225K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

Penélope Cruz 61.7%

Next is Anne Hathaway at 55.9%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Penélope Cruz
61.7%
Polymarket 83.5%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 11%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
83.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anne Hathaway
55.9%
Polymarket 88.5%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 45%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
88.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Polymarket
Samantha Morton
55.2%
Polymarket 72%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 4.8%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$461
Trade this on Polymarket
Amanda Seyfried
50.4%
Polymarket 60%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 21.8%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amanda Seyfried
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Amanda Seyfried
Last price
21.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kate O'Flynn
45.2%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 6.3%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 66%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kate O'Flynn
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Kate O'Flynn
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$562
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kate O’Flynn
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Linda Cardellini
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Linda Cardellini
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Olivia Colman
24.1%
Polymarket 32%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$260
Trade this on Polymarket
Merritt Wever
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Merritt Wever
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mariana di Girolamo
22.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 1.6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mariana di Girolamo
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Mariana di Girolamo
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$663
Trade this on Polymarket
Tao Okamoto
19.4%
Polymarket 60%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 5.9%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 10.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $962 (9.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$654
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
10.4¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$962 (9.62x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 18 more outcomes
Gemma Chan
16.6%
Polymarket 22%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 0.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$480
Trade this on Polymarket
Sandra Hüller
15.6%
Polymarket 28%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 4.7%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$854
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$975
Trade this on Polymarket
Parker Posey
6%
Polymarket 8%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Parker Posey
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Parker Posey
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$590
Trade this on Polymarket
Allison Janney
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Allison Janney
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Zendaya
5.6%
Polymarket 7%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 1.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$554
Trade this on Polymarket
Betty Gilpin
5.4%
Polymarket 7.2%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Betty Gilpin
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Betty Gilpin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$588
Trade this on Polymarket
Katherine LaNasa
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Katherine LaNasa
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Margaret Qualley
3.3%
Polymarket 10.6%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Margaret Qualley
Last price
10.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
10.7¢
Sell Yes
10.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$935 (9.35x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Margaret Qualley
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$597
Trade this on Polymarket
Hannah Einbinder
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hannah Einbinder
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michelle Pfeiffer
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michelle Pfeiffer
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Danielle Deadwyler
2.8%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danielle Deadwyler
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Danielle Deadwyler
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$540
Trade this on Polymarket
Inde Navarrette
2.6%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 1.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$574
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Youn Yuh-jung
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Youn Yuh-jung
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Isabella Rossellini
1.7%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 5 h agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Isabella Rossellini
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Isabella Rossellini
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$368
Trade this on Polymarket
Constance Zimmer
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Constance Zimmer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jessica Williams
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jessica Williams
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Joy Sunday
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joy Sunday
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Venue prices are 5 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Penélope Cruz
  • Anne Hathaway
  • Samantha Morton

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Penélope Cruz for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Winner: Best Supporting Actress on TV". Penélope Cruz leads at 61.7%. Next is Anne Hathaway at 55.9%. $225K has traded across 28 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 10, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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