The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Winner: Best Television Series - Drama

Closes
Jan 10, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$8K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

The Pitt 60.5%

Next is The Diplomat at 14.7%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

The Pitt 60.5%The Diplomat 14.7%House of the Dragon 8.3%A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms 3.7%Slow Horses 3.7%6 others 9.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
The Pitt
60.5%
Kalshi 66%(60.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Pitt
Last price
66%
Fair, margin removed
60.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$441
Trade this on Kalshi
The Diplomat
14.7%
Kalshi 16%(14.7% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Diplomat
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
14.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$359
Trade this on Kalshi
House of the Dragon
8.3%
Kalshi 9%(8.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
House of the Dragon
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
8.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Kalshi
A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
3.7%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$608
Trade this on Kalshi
Slow Horses
3.7%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Slow Horses
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Kalshi
Paradise
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paradise
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Gilded Age
2.7%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Gilded Age
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$608
Trade this on Kalshi
Euphoria
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Euphoria
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$608
Trade this on Kalshi
Pluribus
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pluribus
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$765
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Kalshi
Your Friends & Neighbors
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Your Friends & Neighbors
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$637
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Pitt
  • The Diplomat
  • House of the Dragon

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Winner: Best Television Series - Drama". The Pitt leads at 60.5%. Next is The Diplomat at 14.7%. $8K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 10, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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