The Prediction Markets

Golden Globes 2027: Best Actress – Limited Series Winner

Closes
Jan 11, 2027, in 56 days
Traded
$31K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 min ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Florence Pugh 69.6%

Next is Carey Mulligan at 13.8%. The venues differ most on Tessa Thompson (Polymarket 20%, Kalshi 1%), a 19-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 21 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Florence Pugh
69.6%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 21 min agoKalshi 70%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Florence Pugh
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Florence Pugh
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 21 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 69¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 80¢.

Carey Mulligan
13.8%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 21 min agoKalshi 9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carey Mulligan
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Carey Mulligan
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 21 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Ella Beatty
12%
Polymarket 20%polled, 21 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ella Beatty
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ella Beatty
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 21 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Odessa A'zion
11.1%
Polymarket 20.1%polled, 21 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 39.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $255 (2.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Odessa A’zion
Last price
20.1%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
39.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$255 (2.55x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Odessa A’zion
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 21 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 67¢.

Tessa Thompson
10.5%
Polymarket 20%polled, 21 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tessa Thompson
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
38.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$257 (2.57x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tessa Thompson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 21 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Amy Adams
9.9%
Polymarket 18.9%polled, 21 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amy Adams
Last price
18.9%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
36.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$272 (2.72x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Amy Adams
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 21 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Rebecca Hall
9.8%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 21 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rebecca Hall
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rebecca Hall
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 21 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Linda Cardellini
9.5%
Polymarket 18.1%polled, 21 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Linda Cardellini
Last price
18.1%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
35.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$285 (2.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Linda Cardellini
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 21 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Sarah Pidgeon
9.3%
Polymarket 19%polled, 21 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Pidgeon
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sarah Pidgeon
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 21 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Sally Field
4.5%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 21 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sally Field
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$541
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sally Field
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 21 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.1¢.

Tie
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 11, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Jan 11, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Florence Pugh
  • Carey Mulligan
  • Ella Beatty

Live prices for Florence Pugh

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globes 2027: Best Actress – Limited Series Winner". Florence Pugh leads at 69.6%. Next is Carey Mulligan at 13.8%. $31K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 11, 2027.

The Golden Globe Awards are presented annually by Dick Clark Productions. For the 84th Annual Golden Globe Awards, nominations are scheduled for December 7, 2026, and the ceremony for January 10, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed person who wins Best Actress in a Limited Series, Anthology Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television at the 84th Annual Golden Globe Awards. In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated person whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Golden Globe Awards and the official Golden Globes website (https://www.goldenglobes.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More culture markets

See all culture markets
Golden Globes 2027: Best Actress – Limited Series Winner Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets