The Prediction Markets

Golden Globes 2027: Best Actress – Musical or Comedy Winner

Closes
Jan 11, 2027, in 58 days
Traded
$64K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Julianne Moore 81.6%

Next is Jean Smart at 55%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Julianne MooreArb
81.6%
Polymarket 80.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 74%polled, 47s agoKalshi 98%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julianne Moore
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Julianne Moore
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Julianne Moore
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 82¢ and selling on Kalshi at 96¢ nets 1400 bps before fees.

Jean Smart
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jean Smart
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Elle Fanning
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elle Fanning
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Olivia WildeArb
27.7%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 47s agoKalshi 91%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 91¢ nets 8420 bps before fees.

Inde NavarretteArb
26%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 10%polled, 47s agoKalshi 80%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 79¢ nets 7220 bps before fees.

Olivia ColmanArb
23.2%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 47s agoKalshi 76%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$865
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 62¢ nets 5540 bps before fees.

ZendayaArb
20.2%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 47s agoKalshi 73%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 73¢ nets 6620 bps before fees.

Marion BaileyArb
13.5%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 47s agoKalshi 45%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marion Bailey
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marion Bailey
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Marion Bailey
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$673
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 41¢ nets 3420 bps before fees.

Meryl StreepArb
12.8%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 47s agoKalshi 26%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meryl Streep
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Meryl Streep
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Meryl Streep
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 25¢ nets 1820 bps before fees.

Keke Palmer
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keke Palmer
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$189
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 16 more outcomes
Rosalind EleazarArb
7.9%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 47s agoKalshi 24%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosalind Eleazar
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rosalind Eleazar
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Rosalind Eleazar
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$266
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3.5¢ nets 150 bps before fees.

Ayo Edebiri
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ayo Edebiri
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Natalie Portman
6.5%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 47s agoKalshi 14.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Natalie Portman
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Natalie Portman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Natalie Portman
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Lisa Kudrow
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lisa Kudrow
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Anne Hathaway
5%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 47s agoKalshi 10%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Jodie Comer
5%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 47s agoKalshi 14%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jodie Comer
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jodie Comer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jodie Comer
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Rachel McAdams
4.8%
Polymarket 7.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 47s agoKalshi 8%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rachel McAdams
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rachel McAdams
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Rachel McAdams
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Jenna Ortega
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jenna Ortega
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$997
Trade this on Kalshi
Natasha Lyonne
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Natasha Lyonne
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$397
Trade this on Kalshi
Hannah Einbinder
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hannah Einbinder
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$651
Trade this on Kalshi
Kristen Bell
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kristen Bell
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Kalshi
Quinta Brunson
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Quinta Brunson
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1.2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoKalshi 2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$651
Trade this on Kalshi
Kristen Wiig
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kristen Wiig
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$697
Trade this on Kalshi
Rinko Kikuchi
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rinko Kikuchi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$697
Trade this on Kalshi
Selena Gomez
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Selena Gomez
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$697
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Olivia Wilde on Polymarket at 6.8¢, sell on Kalshi at 91¢ (8420 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 11, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 11, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Julianne Moore
  • Jean Smart
  • Elle Fanning

Live prices for Julianne Moore

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globes 2027: Best Actress – Musical or Comedy Winner". Julianne Moore leads at 81.6%. Next is Jean Smart at 55%. $64K has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 11, 2027.

The Golden Globe Awards are presented annually by Dick Clark Productions. For the 84th Annual Golden Globe Awards, nominations are scheduled for December 7, 2026, and the ceremony for January 10, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed person who wins Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Annual Golden Globe Awards. In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated person whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Golden Globe Awards and the official Golden Globes website (https://www.goldenglobes.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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