Combined depth · both venues
Loading both order books…
What the markets expect
Christopher Nolan 67.9%
Next is Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo at 43%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Christopher NolanArb67.9%64.5%63¢ bid, 66¢ askpolled, just now54%45¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 1 min ago58¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $172 (1.72x)Christopher NolanArb67.9%Polymarket 64.5%polled, just nowKalshi 58%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 95%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Christopher NolanArb
67.9%
64.5%
63¢ bid, 66¢ ask
polled, just now
54%
45¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
58¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Christopher NolanArb
67.9%
Polymarket 64.5%polled, just nowKalshi 58%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 95%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Christopher Nolan
- Last price
- 64.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 66¢
- Sell Yes
- 63¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $152 (1.52x)
- Volume
- $1K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Christopher Nolan
- Last price
- 58%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 58¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $107K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Christopher Nolan
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 85¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $5K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Christopher Nolan
- Last price
- 54%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
- Volume
- $5K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 66¢ and selling on Kalshi at 85¢ nets 1900 bps before fees.
Javier Ambrossi and Javier CalvoArb43%18%— bid, 36¢ askpolled, just now23%9¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 1 min ago28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Javier Ambrossi and Javier CalvoArb43%Polymarket 18%polled, just nowKalshi 88%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Javier Ambrossi and Javier CalvoArb
43%
18%
— bid, 36¢ ask
polled, just now
23%
9¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Javier Ambrossi and Javier CalvoArb
43%
Polymarket 18%polled, just nowKalshi 88%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $25
Kalshi
- Contract
- Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo
- Last price
- 88%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 80¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $16
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 36¢ and selling on Kalshi at 80¢ nets 4400 bps before fees.
Denis VilleneuveArb31.5%13%3¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, just now12%5¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 1 min ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Denis VilleneuveArb31.5%Polymarket 13%polled, just nowKalshi 21%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 80%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Denis VilleneuveArb
31.5%
13%
3¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, just now
12%
5¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Denis VilleneuveArb
31.5%
Polymarket 13%polled, just nowKalshi 21%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 80%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Denis Villeneuve
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $130
Kalshi
- Contract
- Denis Villeneuve
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $46K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Denis Villeneuve
- Last price
- 80%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 81¢
- Sell Yes
- 79¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $123 (1.23x)
- Volume
- $1K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Denis Villeneuve
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $120
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 23¢ and selling on Kalshi at 79¢ nets 5600 bps before fees.
Ryusuke HamaguchiArb29.3%16.1%0.1¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, just now1%1¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Ryusuke HamaguchiArb29.3%Polymarket 16.1%polled, just nowKalshi 50%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Ryusuke HamaguchiArb
29.3%
16.1%
0.1¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, just now
1%
1¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Ryusuke HamaguchiArb
29.3%
Polymarket 16.1%polled, just nowKalshi 50%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ryusuke Hamaguchi
- Last price
- 16.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $10
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ryusuke Hamaguchi
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $1K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ryusuke Hamaguchi
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $218
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 32¢ and selling on Kalshi at 39¢ nets 700 bps before fees.
Olivia WildeArb27.8%18.1%0.2¢ bid, 35.9¢ askpolled, just now12%5¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Olivia WildeArb27.8%Polymarket 18.1%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 80%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Olivia WildeArb
27.8%
18.1%
0.2¢ bid, 35.9¢ ask
polled, just now
12%
5¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Olivia WildeArb
27.8%
Polymarket 18.1%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 80%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Olivia Wilde
- Last price
- 18.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 35.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $279 (2.79x)
- Volume
- $10
Kalshi
- Contract
- Olivia Wilde
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $23K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Olivia Wilde
- Last price
- 80%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 76¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $829
Kalshi
- Contract
- Olivia Wilde
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $632
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 35.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 76¢ nets 4010 bps before fees.
Martin McDonaghArb26.6%18.5%0.2¢ bid, 36.8¢ askpolled, just now6.5%1¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Martin McDonaghArb26.6%Polymarket 18.5%polled, just nowKalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 79.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Martin McDonaghArb
26.6%
18.5%
0.2¢ bid, 36.8¢ ask
polled, just now
6.5%
1¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Martin McDonaghArb
26.6%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, just nowKalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 79.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Martin McDonagh
- Last price
- 18.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $272 (2.72x)
- Volume
- $10
Kalshi
- Contract
- Martin McDonagh
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $28K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Martin McDonagh
- Last price
- 79.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 70¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Martin McDonagh
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 36.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 70¢ nets 3320 bps before fees.
Alejandro G. Iñárritu16.9%16.1%0.1¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, just now6.5%1¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Alejandro G. Iñárritu16.9%Polymarket 16.1%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 44%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
16.9%
16.1%
0.1¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, just now
6.5%
1¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
16.9%
Polymarket 16.1%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 44%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alejandro G. Iñárritu
- Last price
- 16.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $10
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alejandro G. Iñárritu
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $33K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alejandro G. Iñárritu
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $695
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alejandro G. Iñárritu
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 31¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 32¢.
Cristian Mungiu14.3%16.5%0.1¢ bid, 32.9¢ askpolled, just now6.5%1¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 1 min ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Cristian Mungiu14.3%Polymarket 16.5%polled, just nowKalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Cristian Mungiu
14.3%
16.5%
0.1¢ bid, 32.9¢ ask
polled, just now
6.5%
1¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Cristian Mungiu
14.3%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, just nowKalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Cristian Mungiu
- Last price
- 16.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $304 (3.04x)
- Volume
- $10
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cristian Mungiu
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
- Volume
- $687
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cristian Mungiu
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.
Tony Gilroy13.5%15.1%0.1¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, just now5%1¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 1 min ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Tony Gilroy13.5%Polymarket 15.1%polled, just nowKalshi 20.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Tony Gilroy
13.5%
15.1%
0.1¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, just now
5%
1¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Tony Gilroy
13.5%
Polymarket 15.1%polled, just nowKalshi 20.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tony Gilroy
- Last price
- 15.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
- Volume
- $10
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tony Gilroy
- Last price
- 20.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tony Gilroy
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $619
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.
Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi13%Not listed13%11¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 2 min ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi13%Kalshi 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi
13%
Not listed
13%
11¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $28K
Show 14 more outcomesHide 14 outcomes
Paweł Pawlikowski11.2%16.1%0.1¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, just now6.5%1¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 1 min ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Paweł Pawlikowski11.2%Polymarket 16.1%polled, just nowKalshi 11%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Paweł Pawlikowski
11.2%
16.1%
0.1¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, just now
6.5%
1¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Paweł Pawlikowski
11.2%
Polymarket 16.1%polled, just nowKalshi 11%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Paweł Pawlikowski
- Last price
- 16.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $10
Kalshi
- Contract
- Paweł Pawlikowski
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
- Volume
- $200
Kalshi
- Contract
- Paweł Pawlikowski
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.
Nathan Fielder11%Not listed11%11¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 2 min ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Nathan Fielder11%Kalshi 11%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Nathan Fielder
11%
Not listed
11%
11¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Nathan Fielder
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nathan Fielder
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $44K
Tie1.2%Not listed2%— bid, 12¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Tie1.2%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tie
1.2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tie
1.2%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tie
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $10K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tie
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $300
Andrew Haigh1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Andrew Haigh1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Andrew Haigh
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Andrew Haigh
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andrew Haigh
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $315
Ben Affleck1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ben Affleck1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ben Affleck
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ben Affleck
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ben Affleck
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $480
Danny Boyle1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Danny Boyle1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Danny Boyle
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Danny Boyle
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Danny Boyle
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $9K
David Fincher1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)David Fincher1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
David Fincher
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
David Fincher
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- David Fincher
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $15K
Janus Metz Pedersen1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Janus Metz Pedersen1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Janus Metz Pedersen
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Janus Metz Pedersen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Janus Metz Pedersen
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $140
Jesse Eisenberg1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Jesse Eisenberg1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jesse Eisenberg
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jesse Eisenberg
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jesse Eisenberg
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $11K
Joel Coen1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Joel Coen1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Joel Coen
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Joel Coen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Joel Coen
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $816
Mike Leigh1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Mike Leigh1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Mike Leigh
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Mike Leigh
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mike Leigh
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Na Hong-jin1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Na Hong-jin1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Na Hong-jin
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Na Hong-jin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Na Hong-jin
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $989
Phil Lord & Christopher Miller1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Phil Lord & Christopher Miller1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Phil Lord & Christopher Miller
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Phil Lord & Christopher Miller
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Phil Lord & Christopher Miller
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $13K
Steven Spielberg1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Steven Spielberg1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Steven Spielberg
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Steven Spielberg
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Steven Spielberg
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $6K
Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Denis Villeneuve on Polymarket at 23¢, sell on Kalshi at 79¢ (5600 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads
Mostly the same bet: one difference
Where they differ
- Trading closes at different times: Jan 11, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, Golden Globes
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Trading closes Jan 11, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Christopher Nolan
- Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo
- Denis Villeneuve
Live prices for Christopher Nolan
What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Open on Polymarket ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…Kalshi
Open on Kalshi ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globes 2027: Best Director Winner". Christopher Nolan leads at 67.9%. Next is Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo at 43%. $394K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 11, 2027.
The Golden Globe Awards are presented annually by Dick Clark Productions. For the 84th Annual Golden Globe Awards, nominations are scheduled for December 7, 2026, and the ceremony for January 10, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed person who wins Best Director at the 84th Annual Golden Globe Awards. In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated person whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Golden Globe Awards and the official Golden Globes website (https://www.goldenglobes.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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