The Prediction Markets

Golden Globes 2027: Best Motion Picture – Animated Winner

Closes
Jan 11, 2027, in 58 days
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Wildwood 70.6%

Next is Toy Story 5 at 6%. The venues differ most on Toy Story 5 (Polymarket 2.1%, Kalshi 10%), a 7.9-point gap.

Wildwood 70.6%Toy Story 5 6%Ray Gunn 4.9%Hoppers 4.6%Tangles 4%6 others 9.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Wildwood
70.6%
Polymarket 83.5%(68.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 80%(70.2% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
83.5%
Fair, margin removed
68.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
80%
Fair, margin removed
70.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 82¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 86¢.

Toy Story 5
6%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 10%(8.8% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$472
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
8.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$676
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.6¢.

Ray Gunn
4.9%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%(6.1% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ray Gunn
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$247
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ray Gunn
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$648
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.3¢.

Hoppers
4.6%
Polymarket 9.5%(7.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hoppers
Last price
9.5%
Fair, margin removed
7.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hoppers
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$562
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Tangles
4%
Polymarket 3.6%(2.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%(4.4% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tangles
Last price
3.6%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$315
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tangles
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$648
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.9¢.

Forgotten Island
2.2%
Polymarket 4.2%(3.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
4.2%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Hexed
2.2%
Polymarket 4.4%(3.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hexed
Last price
4.4%
Fair, margin removed
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hexed
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Julian
1.6%
Polymarket 4.3%(3.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julián
Last price
4.3%
Fair, margin removed
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Julián
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Minions & Monsters
1.5%
Polymarket 4.2%(3.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minions & Monsters
Last price
4.2%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Minions & Monsters
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$648
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
1.5%
Polymarket 3.9%(3.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
Last price
3.9%
Fair, margin removed
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$590
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Tie
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$750
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 11, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Jan 11, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wildwood
  • Toy Story 5
  • Ray Gunn

Live prices for Wildwood

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globes 2027: Best Motion Picture – Animated Winner". Wildwood leads at 70.6%. Next is Toy Story 5 at 6%. $16K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 11, 2027.

The Golden Globe Awards are presented annually by Dick Clark Productions. For the 84th Annual Golden Globe Awards, nominations are scheduled for December 7, 2026, and the ceremony for January 10, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins Best Motion Picture – Animated at the 84th Annual Golden Globe Awards. In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Golden Globe Awards and the official Golden Globes website (https://www.goldenglobes.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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