The Prediction Markets

Golden Globes 2027: Best Supporting Actress – Television Winner

Closes
Jan 11, 2027, in 56 days
Traded
$56K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Kate O’Flynn 58.9%

Next is Linda Cardellini at 13.6%. The venues differ most on Linda Cardellini (Polymarket 3.5%, Kalshi 20%), a 17-point gap.

Kate O’Flynn 58.9%Linda Cardellini 13.6%Allison Janney 6%Katherine LaNasa 4.7%Hannah Einbinder 4.6%6 others 12.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 17 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Kate O’Flynn
58.9%
Polymarket 71.5%(45.1% fair)polled, 17 min agoKalshi 73%(63.5% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kate O’Flynn
Last price
71.5%
Fair, margin removed
45.1%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kate O’Flynn
Last price
73%
Fair, margin removed
63.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 17 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 62¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 76¢.

Linda Cardellini
13.6%
Polymarket 3.5%(2.2% fair)polled, 17 min agoKalshi 20%(17.4% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Linda Cardellini
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.2%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$259
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Linda Cardellini
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
17.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 17 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 7¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Allison Janney
6%
Polymarket 13.5%(8.5% fair)polled, 17 min agoKalshi 6%(5.2% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Allison Janney
Last price
13.5%
Fair, margin removed
8.5%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Allison Janney
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 17 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Katherine LaNasa
4.7%
Polymarket 13.5%(8.5% fair)polled, 17 min agoKalshi 4%(3.5% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Katherine LaNasa
Last price
13.5%
Fair, margin removed
8.5%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Katherine LaNasa
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 17 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Hannah Einbinder
4.6%
Polymarket 17%(10.7% fair)polled, 17 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hannah Einbinder
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
10.7%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hannah Einbinder
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 17 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Youn Yuh-jung
3.7%
Polymarket 15%(9.5% fair)polled, 17 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Youn Yuh-jung
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
9.5%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Youn Yuh-jung
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 17 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Michelle Pfeiffer
2.6%
Polymarket 4%(2.5% fair)polled, 17 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Pfeiffer
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michelle Pfeiffer
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 17 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Joy Sunday
2.4%
Polymarket 11%(6.9% fair)polled, 17 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joy Sunday
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
6.9%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Joy Sunday
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 17 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Constance Zimmer
1.7%
Polymarket 7%(4.4% fair)polled, 17 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Constance Zimmer
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
4.4%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Constance Zimmer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 17 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Jessica Williams
0.9%
Polymarket 1.5%(0.9% fair)polled, 17 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jessica Williams
Last price
1.5%
Fair, margin removed
0.9%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jessica Williams
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 17 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Tie
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Indicative gap, prices are 17 min old: Linda Cardellini asks 6¢ on Polymarket and bids 7¢ on Kalshi (100 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: 6 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi has a separate 'Tie' outcome; Polymarket has no Tie outcome and resolves a tie to the nominee whose last name comes first alphabetically. In a tie, Kalshi's Tie would pay Yes while Polymarket would pay one nominee.
  • Polymarket resolves to 'Other' if no winner is declared by April 30, 2027; Kalshi has no stated fallback date.
  • Kalshi rules name no resolution source; Polymarket names the broadcast and official website, with credible reporting as a fallback.
  • Kalshi's venue_end_date is 2028-01-10, while Polymarket's is 2027-01-11. Both rules refer to the same January 10, 2027 ceremony, so this is likely a metadata artifact.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome that Polymarket lacks; Polymarket has an implied 'Other' outcome.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 11, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi has a separate 'Tie' outcome; Polymarket has no Tie outcome and resolves a tie to the nominee whose last name comes first alphabetically. In a tie, Kalshi's Tie would pay Yes while Polymarket would pay one nominee.
  • Polymarket resolves to 'Other' if no winner is declared by April 30, 2027; Kalshi has no stated fallback date.
  • Kalshi rules name no resolution source; Polymarket names the broadcast and official website, with credible reporting as a fallback.
  • Kalshi's venue_end_date is 2028-01-10, while Polymarket's is 2027-01-11. Both rules refer to the same January 10, 2027 ceremony, so this is likely a metadata artifact.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome that Polymarket lacks; Polymarket has an implied 'Other' outcome.
  • Trading closes Jan 11, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kate O’Flynn
  • Linda Cardellini
  • Allison Janney

Live prices for Kate O’Flynn

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globes 2027: Best Supporting Actress – Television Winner". Kate O’Flynn leads at 58.9%. Next is Linda Cardellini at 13.6%. $56K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 11, 2027.

The Golden Globe Awards are presented annually by Dick Clark Productions. For the 84th Annual Golden Globe Awards, nominations are scheduled for December 7, 2026, and the ceremony for January 10, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed person who wins Best Supporting Actress on Television at the 84th Annual Golden Globe Awards. In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated person whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Golden Globe Awards and the official Golden Globes website (https://www.goldenglobes.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More culture markets

See all culture markets