The Prediction Markets

Golden Globes 2027: Best Television Series – Comedy or Musical Nominees

Closes
Dec 8, 2026, in 22 days
Traded
$36K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
14 min ago
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What the markets expect

Widow’s Bay 71.8%

Next is Hacks at 67.5%. The venues differ most on The Studio (Polymarket 43%, Kalshi 2%), a 41-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 26 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Widow’s Bay
71.8%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 26 min agoKalshi 89%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Widow’s Bay
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 26 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Widow’s Bay
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 26 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 89¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 98¢.

Hacks
67.5%
Polymarket 55%polled, 26 min agoKalshi 80%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hacks
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 26 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hacks
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 26 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 80¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 98¢.

Only Murders in the Building
65.5%
Polymarket 51%polled, 26 min agoKalshi 80%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Only Murders in the Building
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 26 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Only Murders in the Building
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 26 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 80¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 98¢.

Abbott Elementary
60.5%
Polymarket 51%polled, 26 min agoKalshi 70%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Abbott Elementary
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 26 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Abbott Elementary
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 26 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 70¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 98¢.

The Bear
56.1%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 26 min agoKalshi 58%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Bear
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 26 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Bear
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 26 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 55¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 56¢.

Shrinking
46%
Polymarket 52%polled, 26 min agoKalshi 40%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shrinking
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 26 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shrinking
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$288
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 26 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 16¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 54¢.

Nobody Wants This
45.3%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 26 min agoKalshi 41%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nobody Wants This
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 26 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nobody Wants This
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 26 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 13¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 49¢.

Rooster
29.3%
Polymarket 43%polled, 26 min agoKalshi 15.5%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rooster
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 26 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rooster
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 26 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 25¢.

The Studio
22.5%
Polymarket 43%polled, 26 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Studio
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 26 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Studio
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 26 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Ted Lasso
18.3%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 26 min agoKalshi 18%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ted Lasso
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 26 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ted Lasso
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 26 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Polymarket explicitly resolves No if no nominations are announced by Jan 10, 2027; Kalshi has no stated fallback for delayed or no announcement.
  • Polymarket names the official Golden Globes website with credible reporting as a backup; Kalshi does not state a resolution source beyond the list of nominees.
  • The venue end dates differ (Kalshi 2027-12-08, Polymarket 2026-12-08), but both tie resolution to the Dec 7, 2026 nominations announcement.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 8, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes
Show full rule comparison
  • Polymarket explicitly resolves No if no nominations are announced by Jan 10, 2027; Kalshi has no stated fallback for delayed or no announcement.
  • Polymarket names the official Golden Globes website with credible reporting as a backup; Kalshi does not state a resolution source beyond the list of nominees.
  • The venue end dates differ (Kalshi 2027-12-08, Polymarket 2026-12-08), but both tie resolution to the Dec 7, 2026 nominations announcement.
  • Trading closes Dec 8, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Widow’s Bay
  • Hacks
  • Only Murders in the Building

Live prices for Widow’s Bay

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globes 2027: Best Television Series – Comedy or Musical Nominees". Widow’s Bay leads at 71.8%. Next is Hacks at 67.5%. $36K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2026.

The Golden Globe Awards are presented annually by Dick Clark Productions. For the 84th Annual Golden Globe Awards, nominations are scheduled for December 7, 2026, and the ceremony for January 10, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed series is nominated for Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Annual Golden Globe Awards. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are announced by January 10, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be the official Golden Globes website (https://www.goldenglobes.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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