The Prediction Markets

Golden Globes 2027: Best Television Series – Comedy or Musical Winner

Closes
Jan 11, 2027, in 56 days
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
14 min ago
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What the markets expect

Widow's Bay 59.4%

Next is The Studio at 8%. The venues differ most on Rooster (Polymarket 16.9%, Kalshi 2%), a 15-point gap.

Widow's Bay 59.4%The Studio 8%Hacks 7.2%The Bear 6.1%Rooster 3.6%6 others 15.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 27 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Widow's Bay
59.4%
Polymarket 72%(38.7% fair)polled, 27 min agoKalshi 75%(66.4% fair)polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Widow’s Bay
Last price
72%
Fair, margin removed
38.7%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$954
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Widow’s Bay
Last price
75%
Fair, margin removed
66.4%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 27 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 74¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 78¢.

The Studio
8%
Polymarket 10.5%(5.6% fair)polled, 27 min agoKalshi 10%(8.8% fair)polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Studio
Last price
10.5%
Fair, margin removed
5.6%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
20.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$488 (4.88x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Studio
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
8.8%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$967
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 27 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Hacks
7.2%
Polymarket 14%(7.5% fair)polled, 27 min agoKalshi 8%(7.1% fair)polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hacks
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
7.5%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$42
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hacks
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.1%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 27 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 13¢.

The Bear
6.1%
Polymarket 15.7%(8.4% fair)polled, 27 min agoKalshi 6%(5.3% fair)polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Bear
Last price
15.7%
Fair, margin removed
8.4%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
30.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$330 (3.30x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Bear
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.3%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 27 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.

Rooster
3.6%
Polymarket 16.9%(9.1% fair)polled, 27 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rooster
Last price
16.9%
Fair, margin removed
9.1%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
32.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$305 (3.05x)
Volume
$42
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rooster
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$851
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 27 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Shrinking
3.4%
Polymarket 15.5%(8.3% fair)polled, 27 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shrinking
Last price
15.5%
Fair, margin removed
8.3%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shrinking
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$834
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 27 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Ted Lasso
3.1%
Polymarket 13.5%(7.3% fair)polled, 27 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ted Lasso
Last price
13.5%
Fair, margin removed
7.3%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
26.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$375 (3.75x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ted Lasso
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 27 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Only Murders in the Building
3%
Polymarket 12.6%(6.8% fair)polled, 27 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Only Murders in the Building
Last price
12.6%
Fair, margin removed
6.8%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
24.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$402 (4.02x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Only Murders in the Building
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 27 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Nobody Wants This
2.3%
Polymarket 7%(3.7% fair)polled, 27 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nobody Wants This
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
3.7%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
12.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$775 (7.75x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nobody Wants This
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 27 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Abbott Elementary
2.1%
Polymarket 5.7%(3.1% fair)polled, 27 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Abbott Elementary
Last price
5.7%
Fair, margin removed
3.1%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
11.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$901 (9.01x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Abbott Elementary
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 27 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Tie
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 14 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 14 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$532
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 11, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official ceremony result or nominations announcement for the same edition.
  • Kalshi lists a 'Tie' outcome and resolves ties per its rules; Polymarket resolves ties per its own description. Nominee lists differ; only names on both venues are linked.
  • Trading closes Jan 11, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Widow's Bay
  • The Studio
  • Hacks

Live prices for Widow's Bay

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globes 2027: Best Television Series – Comedy or Musical Winner". Widow's Bay leads at 59.4%. Next is The Studio at 8%. $15K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 11, 2027.

The Golden Globe Awards are presented annually by Dick Clark Productions. For the 84th Annual Golden Globe Awards, nominations are scheduled for December 7, 2026, and the ceremony for January 10, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed series that wins Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Annual Golden Globe Awards. In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated series whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Golden Globe Awards and the official Golden Globes website (https://www.goldenglobes.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Golden Globes 2027: Best Television Series – Comedy or Musical Winner Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets