The Prediction Markets

GOLDEN HOUR: Part.6: First Week Album Equivalent Units

Closes
Nov 22, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Above 20K 99%

Next is Above 40K at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 20K
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20K
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$156
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 40K
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 40K
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 60K
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60K
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 80K
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 80K
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 100K
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100K
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 120K
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 120K
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 140K
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 140K
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 160K
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 160K
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$107
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 180K
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180K
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200K
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200K
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Above 220K
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220K
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 240K
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 240K
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 260K
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260K
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 280K
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 280K
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 300K
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 300K
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$107
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 320K
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 320K
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 360K
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 360K
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 340K
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 340K
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 380K
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 380K
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 400K
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 400K
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$141
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Luminate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 20K
  • Above 40K
  • Above 60K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "GOLDEN HOUR: Part.6: First Week Album Equivalent Units". Above 20K leads at 99%. Next is Above 40K at 99%. $1K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 22, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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