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What the markets expect
the cure - Olivia Rodrigo 84.5%
Next is The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift at 80%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
the cure - Olivia Rodrigo84.5%84.5%82¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed87¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $115 (1.15x)the cure - Olivia Rodrigo84.5%Polymarket 84.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
the cure - Olivia Rodrigo
84.5%
84.5%
82¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
87¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
the cure - Olivia Rodrigo
84.5%
Polymarket 84.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- the cure - Olivia Rodrigo
- Last price
- 84.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $10
The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift80%80%78¢ bid, 82¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed82¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $122 (1.22x)The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift80%Polymarket 80%polled, just nowBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift
80%
80%
78¢ bid, 82¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
82¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $122 (1.22x)
The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift
80%
Polymarket 80%polled, just nowBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift
- Last price
- 80%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 82¢
- Sell Yes
- 78¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $122 (1.22x)
- Volume
- $283
Risk It All - Bruno Mars60.5%60.5%57¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed64¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $156 (1.56x)Risk It All - Bruno Mars60.5%Polymarket 60.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Risk It All - Bruno Mars
60.5%
60.5%
57¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
64¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Risk It All - Bruno Mars
60.5%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Risk It All - Bruno Mars
- Last price
- 60.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 57¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $165
hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande41%41%38¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed44¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $227 (2.27x)hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande41%Polymarket 41%polled, just nowBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande
41%
41%
38¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
44¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, just nowBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 38¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $4
Man I Need33%Not listed33%26¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, just now34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Man I Need33%Kalshi 33%polled, just nowBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Man I Need
33%
Not listed
33%
26¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, just now
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Man I Need
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, just nowBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Man I Need
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $441
The Fate of Ophelia22.5%Not listed22.5%18¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, just now27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)The Fate of Ophelia22.5%Kalshi 22.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
The Fate of Ophelia
22.5%
Not listed
22.5%
18¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, just now
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
The Fate of Ophelia
22.5%
Kalshi 22.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Fate of Ophelia
- Last price
- 22.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
Sauvignon Blanc - Rosalia21.3%21.3%19.3¢ bid, 23.2¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed23.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $431 (4.31x)Sauvignon Blanc - Rosalia21.3%Polymarket 21.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 23.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $431 (4.31x)
Sauvignon Blanc - Rosalia
21.3%
21.3%
19.3¢ bid, 23.2¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
23.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $431 (4.31x)
Sauvignon Blanc - Rosalia
21.3%
Polymarket 21.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 23.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $431 (4.31x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sauvignon Blanc - Rosalia
- Last price
- 21.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 19.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $431 (4.31x)
- Volume
- $929
Aperture - Harry Styles20.5%20.5%18¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed23¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Aperture - Harry Styles20.5%Polymarket 20.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Aperture - Harry Styles
20.5%
20.5%
18¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
23¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Aperture - Harry Styles
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Aperture - Harry Styles
- Last price
- 20.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $45
Mature - Hilary Duff14.9%14.9%1.1¢ bid, 28.6¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed28.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $350 (3.50x)Mature - Hilary Duff14.9%Polymarket 14.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 28.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $350 (3.50x)
Mature - Hilary Duff
14.9%
14.9%
1.1¢ bid, 28.6¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
28.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $350 (3.50x)
Mature - Hilary Duff
14.9%
Polymarket 14.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 28.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $350 (3.50x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mature - Hilary Duff
- Last price
- 14.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 28.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $350 (3.50x)
WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!13%Not listed13%7¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, just now13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!13%Kalshi 13%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!
13%
Not listed
13%
7¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, just now
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $150
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
FEVER DREAM - Alex Warren10.7%10.7%9.3¢ bid, 12.1¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed12.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $826 (8.26x)FEVER DREAM - Alex Warren10.7%Polymarket 10.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 12.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $826 (8.26x)
FEVER DREAM - Alex Warren
10.7%
10.7%
9.3¢ bid, 12.1¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
12.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $826 (8.26x)
FEVER DREAM - Alex Warren
10.7%
Polymarket 10.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 12.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $826 (8.26x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- FEVER DREAM - Alex Warren
- Last price
- 10.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 9.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $826 (8.26x)
- Volume
- $80
Be Her - Ella Langley7.5%7.5%6¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Be Her - Ella Langley7.5%Polymarket 7.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Be Her - Ella Langley
7.5%
7.5%
6¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Be Her - Ella Langley
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Be Her - Ella Langley
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams7.5%7.5%6¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams7.5%Polymarket 7.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams
7.5%
7.5%
6¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $78
iloveitiloveitiloveit - Bella Kay6.5%6.5%5¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)iloveitiloveitiloveit - Bella Kay6.5%Polymarket 6.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
iloveitiloveitiloveit - Bella Kay
6.5%
6.5%
5¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
iloveitiloveitiloveit - Bella Kay
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- iloveitiloveitiloveit - Bella Kay
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $110
Speed Demon - JUS6.5%6.5%5¢ bid, 7.9¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed7.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)Speed Demon - JUS6.5%Polymarket 6.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Speed Demon - JUS
6.5%
6.5%
5¢ bid, 7.9¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
7.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Speed Demon - JUS
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Speed Demon - JUS
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,266 (12.7x)
- Volume
- $170
Zoo - Shakira6.5%6.5%4¢ bid, 8.9¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed8.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)Zoo - Shakira6.5%Polymarket 6.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Zoo - Shakira
6.5%
6.5%
4¢ bid, 8.9¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
8.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Zoo - Shakira
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Zoo - Shakira
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,124 (11.2x)
- Volume
- $245
Chanel - Tyla6.1%6.1%5.3¢ bid, 6.9¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed6.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)Chanel - Tyla6.1%Polymarket 6.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Chanel - Tyla
6.1%
6.1%
5.3¢ bid, 6.9¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
6.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Chanel - Tyla
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Chanel - Tyla
- Last price
- 6.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,449 (14.5x)
- Volume
- $364
BEAT UP CHANEL$4%Not listed4%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)BEAT UP CHANEL$4%Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
BEAT UP CHANEL$
4%
Not listed
4%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
BEAT UP CHANEL$
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- BEAT UP CHANEL$
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $3
I Just Might4%Not listed4%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)I Just Might4%Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
I Just Might
4%
Not listed
4%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
I Just Might
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- I Just Might
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $150
Less Than A Lover - JENNIE3.4%3.4%2.4¢ bid, 4.4¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed4.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)Less Than A Lover - JENNIE3.4%Polymarket 3.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Less Than A Lover - JENNIE
3.4%
3.4%
2.4¢ bid, 4.4¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
4.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Less Than A Lover - JENNIE
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Less Than A Lover - JENNIE
- Last price
- 3.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,273 (22.7x)
Drop Dead3%Not listed3%1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Drop Dead3%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Drop Dead
3%
Not listed
3%
1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Drop Dead
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Drop Dead
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $317
Die On This Hill2.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, just now5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Die On This Hill2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Die On This Hill
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, just now
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Die On This Hill
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Die On This Hill
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Chains of Love2%Not listed2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Chains of Love2%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Chains of Love
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Chains of Love
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chains of Love
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Cherry2%Not listed2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Cherry2%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Cherry
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Cherry
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cherry
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Dopamine2%Not listed2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Dopamine2%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Dopamine
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Dopamine
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dopamine
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Tie2%Not listed2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, just now4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Tie2%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Tie
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, just now
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Tie
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tie
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Recording Academy
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- the cure - Olivia Rodrigo
- The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift
- Risk It All - Bruno Mars
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list the cure - Olivia Rodrigo for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Grammy Winner · Best Pop Solo Performance". the cure - Olivia Rodrigo leads at 84.5%. Next is The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift at 80%. $4K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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