The Prediction Markets

Gwen Stacy live-action film actress?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$28K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

No actor chosen by end of 2027 47.3%

Next is Emma Myers at 31.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

No actor chosen by end of 2027 47.3%Emma Myers 31.9%McKenna Grace 15%Emma Stone 2.8%Kiernan Shipka 1.4%3 others 1.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
No actor chosen by end of 2027
47.3%
Polymarket 49%(47.3% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
No actor chosen by end of 2027
Last price
49%
Fair, margin removed
47.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Emma Myers
31.9%
Polymarket 33%(31.9% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Emma Myers
Last price
33%
Fair, margin removed
31.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
McKenna Grace
15%
Polymarket 15.5%(15% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
McKenna Grace
Last price
15.5%
Fair, margin removed
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Emma Stone
2.8%
Polymarket 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Emma Stone
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Polymarket
Kiernan Shipka
1.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kiernan Shipka
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$171
Trade this on Polymarket
Sadie Sink
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sadie Sink
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$243
Trade this on Polymarket
Emily Rudd
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Emily Rudd
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$181
Trade this on Polymarket
Ester Expósito
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ester Expósito
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$185
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No actor chosen by end of 2027
  • Emma Myers
  • McKenna Grace

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Gwen Stacy live-action film actress?". No actor chosen by end of 2027 leads at 47.3%. Next is Emma Myers at 31.9%. $28K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will play Gwen Stacy in a live-action feature film by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Actors announced to play the character in animated films or TV series will not qualify. Only live-action feature film castings will qualify. If more than one actor is announced to portray Gwen Stacy in the same film, only the actor cast in the principal role of the character will qualify. Actors cast to portray a younger, older, alternate, or variant version of the character, and actors serving as body doubles, stunt doubles, or voice doubles, will not qualify. If no actor is announced as the live-action Gwen Stacy within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No actor chosen by end of 2027". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Sony Pictures, Marvel, their parent companies, or another authorized representative of the Spider-Man franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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