The Prediction Markets

Haus Labs TikTok Shop growth in November

Closes
Dec 6, 2026, in 20 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
21 min ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Above 475 56%

Next is Above 525 at 54.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 21 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 475
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 475
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 525
54.5%
Kalshi 54.5%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 525
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 450
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 450
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 500
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 500
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 550
53.5%
Kalshi 53.5%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 550
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 575
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 575
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 375
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 375
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 400
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 400
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 425
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 425
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 600
45.5%
Kalshi 45.5%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 600
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Carbon Arc - Haus Labs TikTok Shop

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 475
  • Above 525
  • Above 450

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Haus Labs TikTok Shop growth in November". Above 475 leads at 56%. Next is Above 525 at 54.5%. $1K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 6, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets