The Prediction Markets

Houthi military action against Israel by...?

Closed
Apr 15, 2026
Traded
$351K
Venues
Polymarket
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 15, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 203 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
April 15
99.5%
Polymarket 99.5%polled, 4881 h agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
April 15
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 203 d ago
Buy Yes
99.5¢
Sell Yes
99.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$263K
Trade this on Polymarket
April 30
99.5%
Polymarket 99.5%polled, 4881 h agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
April 30
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 203 d ago
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
99.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$88K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • April 15
  • April 30

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Houthi military action against Israel by...?". April 15 last traded at 99.5%. Next is April 30 at 99.5%. $351K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 15, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More ai_tech markets

See all ai_tech markets