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What the markets expect
4.86% or above 88%
Next is 4.88% or above at 74.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
4.86% or above88%88%77¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, 24s ago88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)4.86% or above88%Kalshi 88%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
4.86% or above
88%
88%
77¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
4.86% or above
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.86% or above
- Last price
- 88%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 77¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $133
4.88% or above74.5%74.5%66¢ bid, 83¢ askpolled, 24s ago83¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $120 (1.20x)4.88% or above74.5%Kalshi 74.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
4.88% or above
74.5%
74.5%
66¢ bid, 83¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
83¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $120 (1.20x)
4.88% or above
74.5%
Kalshi 74.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.88% or above
- Last price
- 74.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 83¢
- Sell Yes
- 66¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $120 (1.20x)
4.87% or above71%71%71¢ bid, 85¢ askpolled, 24s ago85¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $118 (1.18x)4.87% or above71%Kalshi 71%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
4.87% or above
71%
71%
71¢ bid, 85¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
85¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
4.87% or above
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.87% or above
- Last price
- 71%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- 71¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
- Volume
- $85
4.89% or above71%71%61¢ bid, 81¢ askpolled, 24s ago81¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $123 (1.23x)4.89% or above71%Kalshi 71%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
4.89% or above
71%
71%
61¢ bid, 81¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
81¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $123 (1.23x)
4.89% or above
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.89% or above
- Last price
- 71%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 81¢
- Sell Yes
- 61¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $123 (1.23x)
4.9% or above67.5%67.5%57¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 24s ago78¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $128 (1.28x)4.9% or above67.5%Kalshi 67.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
4.9% or above
67.5%
67.5%
57¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
78¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
4.9% or above
67.5%
Kalshi 67.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.9% or above
- Last price
- 67.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 57¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
4.92% or above59.5%59.5%48¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, 24s ago71¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $141 (1.41x)4.92% or above59.5%Kalshi 59.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
4.92% or above
59.5%
59.5%
48¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
71¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
4.92% or above
59.5%
Kalshi 59.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.92% or above
- Last price
- 59.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 48¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
4.93% or above55.5%55.5%43¢ bid, 68¢ askpolled, 24s ago68¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $147 (1.47x)4.93% or above55.5%Kalshi 55.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
4.93% or above
55.5%
55.5%
43¢ bid, 68¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
68¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $147 (1.47x)
4.93% or above
55.5%
Kalshi 55.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.93% or above
- Last price
- 55.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 68¢
- Sell Yes
- 43¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $147 (1.47x)
4.91% or above53%53%53¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, 24s ago75¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $133 (1.33x)4.91% or above53%Kalshi 53%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
4.91% or above
53%
53%
53¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
75¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
4.91% or above
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.91% or above
- Last price
- 53%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 53¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $80
4.94% or above53%53%39¢ bid, 67¢ askpolled, 24s ago67¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $149 (1.49x)4.94% or above53%Kalshi 53%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
4.94% or above
53%
53%
39¢ bid, 67¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
67¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $149 (1.49x)
4.94% or above
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.94% or above
- Last price
- 53%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 67¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $149 (1.49x)
4.96% or above44.5%44.5%32¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 24s ago57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)4.96% or above44.5%Kalshi 44.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
4.96% or above
44.5%
44.5%
32¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
4.96% or above
44.5%
Kalshi 44.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.96% or above
- Last price
- 44.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
Show 20 more outcomesHide 20 outcomes
4.97% or above42.5%42.5%29¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 24s ago56¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $179 (1.79x)4.97% or above42.5%Kalshi 42.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
4.97% or above
42.5%
42.5%
29¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
56¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
4.97% or above
42.5%
Kalshi 42.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.97% or above
- Last price
- 42.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
4.95% or above39%39%38¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, 24s ago52¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $192 (1.92x)4.95% or above39%Kalshi 39%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
4.95% or above
39%
39%
38¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
52¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
4.95% or above
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.95% or above
- Last price
- 39%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 38¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
- Volume
- $331
4.98% or above27%27%27¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 24s ago48¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $208 (2.08x)4.98% or above27%Kalshi 27%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
4.98% or above
27%
27%
27¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
48¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
4.98% or above
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.98% or above
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $105
5% or above26.5%26.5%19¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 24s ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)5% or above26.5%Kalshi 26.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
5% or above
26.5%
26.5%
19¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
5% or above
26.5%
Kalshi 26.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5% or above
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
5.01% or above25.5%25.5%17¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 24s ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)5.01% or above25.5%Kalshi 25.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
5.01% or above
25.5%
25.5%
17¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
5.01% or above
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.01% or above
- Last price
- 25.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
4.99% or above24%24%24¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 24s ago30¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $333 (3.33x)4.99% or above24%Kalshi 24%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
4.99% or above
24%
24%
24¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
30¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
4.99% or above
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.99% or above
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
- Volume
- $140
5.02% or above24%24%15¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 24s ago33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)5.02% or above24%Kalshi 24%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
5.02% or above
24%
24%
15¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
5.02% or above
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.02% or above
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
5.08% or above22%22%6¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 24s ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)5.08% or above22%Kalshi 22%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
5.08% or above
22%
22%
6¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
5.08% or above
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.08% or above
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $10
5.05% or above20.5%20.5%10¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 24s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)5.05% or above20.5%Kalshi 20.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
5.05% or above
20.5%
20.5%
10¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
5.05% or above
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.05% or above
- Last price
- 20.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
5.06% or above19%19%8¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 24s ago30¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $333 (3.33x)5.06% or above19%Kalshi 19%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
5.06% or above
19%
19%
8¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
30¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
5.06% or above
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.06% or above
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
5.03% or above15%15%15¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 24s ago28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)5.03% or above15%Kalshi 15%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
5.03% or above
15%
15%
15¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
5.03% or above
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.03% or above
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $304
5.09% or above14%14%5¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 24s ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)5.09% or above14%Kalshi 14%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
5.09% or above
14%
14%
5¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
5.09% or above
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.09% or above
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
5.1% or above13%13%4¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 24s ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)5.1% or above13%Kalshi 13%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
5.1% or above
13%
13%
4¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
5.1% or above
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.1% or above
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
5.11% or above12.5%12.5%4¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 24s ago21¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $476 (4.76x)5.11% or above12.5%Kalshi 12.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
5.11% or above
12.5%
12.5%
4¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
21¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
5.11% or above
12.5%
Kalshi 12.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.11% or above
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
5.04% or above12%12%11¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 24s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)5.04% or above12%Kalshi 12%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
5.04% or above
12%
12%
11¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
5.04% or above
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.04% or above
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $10
5.13% or above10.5%10.5%2¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 24s ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)5.13% or above10.5%Kalshi 10.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
5.13% or above
10.5%
10.5%
2¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
5.13% or above
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.13% or above
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
5.07% or above9%9%8¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 24s ago21¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $476 (4.76x)5.07% or above9%Kalshi 9%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
5.07% or above
9%
9%
8¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
21¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
5.07% or above
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.07% or above
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $448
5.14% or above9%9%— bid, 18¢ askpolled, 24s ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)5.14% or above9%Kalshi 9%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
5.14% or above
9%
9%
— bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
5.14% or above
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.14% or above
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
5.15% or above8.5%8.5%— bid, 17¢ askpolled, 24s ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)5.15% or above8.5%Kalshi 8.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
5.15% or above
8.5%
8.5%
— bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
5.15% or above
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.15% or above
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
5.12% or above7%7%4¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 24s ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)5.12% or above7%Kalshi 7%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
5.12% or above
7%
7%
4¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
5.12% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.12% or above
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $80
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 4.86% or above
- 4.88% or above
- 4.87% or above
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?". 4.86% or above leads at 88%. Next is 4.88% or above at 74.5%. $2K has traded across 30 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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