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What the markets expect
4.96% or above 68%
Next is 4.97% or above at 64.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
4.96% or above68%68%59¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, 16s ago75¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $133 (1.33x)4.96% or above68%Kalshi 68%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
4.96% or above
68%
68%
59¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
75¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
4.96% or above
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.96% or above
- Last price
- 68%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $129
4.97% or above64.5%64.5%53¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, 16s ago76¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $132 (1.32x)4.97% or above64.5%Kalshi 64.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
4.97% or above
64.5%
64.5%
53¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
76¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
4.97% or above
64.5%
Kalshi 64.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.97% or above
- Last price
- 64.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 53¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
4.98% or above61%61%49¢ bid, 73¢ askpolled, 16s ago73¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $137 (1.37x)4.98% or above61%Kalshi 61%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
4.98% or above
61%
61%
49¢ bid, 73¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
73¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $137 (1.37x)
4.98% or above
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.98% or above
- Last price
- 61%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 73¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $137 (1.37x)
4.99% or above57%57%44¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, 16s ago70¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $143 (1.43x)4.99% or above57%Kalshi 57%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
4.99% or above
57%
57%
44¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
70¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
4.99% or above
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4.99% or above
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 44¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
5% or above53.5%53.5%40¢ bid, 67¢ askpolled, 16s ago67¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $149 (1.49x)5% or above53.5%Kalshi 53.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
5% or above
53.5%
53.5%
40¢ bid, 67¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
67¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $149 (1.49x)
5% or above
53.5%
Kalshi 53.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5% or above
- Last price
- 53.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 67¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $149 (1.49x)
5.01% or above50%50%36¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 16s ago64¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $156 (1.56x)5.01% or above50%Kalshi 50%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
5.01% or above
50%
50%
36¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
64¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
5.01% or above
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.01% or above
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
5.03% or above42%42%29¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 16s ago55¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $182 (1.82x)5.03% or above42%Kalshi 42%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
5.03% or above
42%
42%
29¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
55¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
5.03% or above
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.03% or above
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
5.04% or above38%38%26¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 16s ago50¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $200 (2.00x)5.04% or above38%Kalshi 38%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
5.04% or above
38%
38%
26¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
50¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
5.04% or above
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.04% or above
- Last price
- 38%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
5.05% or above34%34%23¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 16s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)5.05% or above34%Kalshi 34%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
5.05% or above
34%
34%
23¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
5.05% or above
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.05% or above
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
5.02% or above32%32%32¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 16s ago58¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $172 (1.72x)5.02% or above32%Kalshi 32%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
5.02% or above
32%
32%
32¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
58¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
5.02% or above
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.02% or above
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
- Volume
- $290
Show 20 more outcomesHide 20 outcomes
5.06% or above30%30%20¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, 16s ago40¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $250 (2.50x)5.06% or above30%Kalshi 30%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
5.06% or above
30%
30%
20¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
40¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $250 (2.50x)
5.06% or above
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.06% or above
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
5.08% or above22.5%22.5%15¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 16s ago30¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $333 (3.33x)5.08% or above22.5%Kalshi 22.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
5.08% or above
22.5%
22.5%
15¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
30¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
5.08% or above
22.5%
Kalshi 22.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.08% or above
- Last price
- 22.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
5.09% or above21%21%13¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 16s ago29¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $345 (3.45x)5.09% or above21%Kalshi 21%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
5.09% or above
21%
21%
13¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
29¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
5.09% or above
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.09% or above
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
5.07% or above19%19%17¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 16s ago29¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $345 (3.45x)5.07% or above19%Kalshi 19%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
5.07% or above
19%
19%
17¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
29¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
5.07% or above
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.07% or above
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $440
5.11% or above17.5%17.5%10¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 16s ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)5.11% or above17.5%Kalshi 17.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
5.11% or above
17.5%
17.5%
10¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
5.11% or above
17.5%
Kalshi 17.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.11% or above
- Last price
- 17.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
5.12% or above15.5%15.5%8¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 16s ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)5.12% or above15.5%Kalshi 15.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
5.12% or above
15.5%
15.5%
8¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
5.12% or above
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.12% or above
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
5.13% or above14.5%14.5%7¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 16s ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)5.13% or above14.5%Kalshi 14.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
5.13% or above
14.5%
14.5%
7¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
5.13% or above
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.13% or above
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
5.14% or above13.5%13.5%6¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 16s ago21¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $476 (4.76x)5.14% or above13.5%Kalshi 13.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
5.14% or above
13.5%
13.5%
6¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
21¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
5.14% or above
13.5%
Kalshi 13.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.14% or above
- Last price
- 13.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
5.15% or above12.5%12.5%5¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 16s ago20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)5.15% or above12.5%Kalshi 12.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
5.15% or above
12.5%
12.5%
5¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
5.15% or above
12.5%
Kalshi 12.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.15% or above
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
5.1% or above12%12%11¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 16s ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)5.1% or above12%Kalshi 12%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
5.1% or above
12%
12%
11¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
5.1% or above
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.1% or above
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $300
5.16% or above11.5%11.5%4¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 16s ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)5.16% or above11.5%Kalshi 11.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
5.16% or above
11.5%
11.5%
4¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
5.16% or above
11.5%
Kalshi 11.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.16% or above
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
5.17% or above10.5%10.5%3¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 16s ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)5.17% or above10.5%Kalshi 10.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
5.17% or above
10.5%
10.5%
3¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
5.17% or above
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.17% or above
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
5.18% or above10%10%3¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 16s ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)5.18% or above10%Kalshi 10%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
5.18% or above
10%
10%
3¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
5.18% or above
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.18% or above
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
5.19% or above9%9%2¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 16s ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)5.19% or above9%Kalshi 9%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
5.19% or above
9%
9%
2¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
5.19% or above
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.19% or above
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
5.2% or above7.5%7.5%— bid, 15¢ askpolled, 16s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)5.2% or above7.5%Kalshi 7.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
5.2% or above
7.5%
7.5%
— bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
5.2% or above
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.2% or above
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
5.21% or above7%7%— bid, 14¢ askpolled, 16s ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)5.21% or above7%Kalshi 7%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
5.21% or above
7%
7%
— bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
5.21% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.21% or above
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
5.22% or above6.5%6.5%— bid, 13¢ askpolled, 16s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)5.22% or above6.5%Kalshi 6.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
5.22% or above
6.5%
6.5%
— bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
5.22% or above
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.22% or above
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
5.23% or above6%6%— bid, 12¢ askpolled, 16s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)5.23% or above6%Kalshi 6%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.23% or above
6%
6%
— bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
5.23% or above
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.23% or above
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
5.24% or above5.5%5.5%— bid, 11¢ askpolled, 16s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)5.24% or above5.5%Kalshi 5.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
5.24% or above
5.5%
5.5%
— bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
5.24% or above
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.24% or above
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
5.25% or above5%5%— bid, 10¢ askpolled, 16s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)5.25% or above5%Kalshi 5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
5.25% or above
5%
5%
— bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
5.25% or above
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5.25% or above
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 4.96% or above
- 4.97% or above
- 4.98% or above
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "How high will the 7-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?". 4.96% or above leads at 68%. Next is 4.97% or above at 64.5%. $1K has traded across 30 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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