The Prediction Markets

How many launches will SpaceX have in November?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$940K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 6 98%

Next is Above 7 at 89%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 6
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$507
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
5
80%
Polymarket 80%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
5
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$107K
Trade this on Polymarket
140-159
74.4%
Polymarket 74.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 84.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
140-159
Last price
74.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
84.3¢
Sell Yes
64.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 8
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
120-139
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 31.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $318 (3.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
120-139
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
31.4¢
Sell Yes
12.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$318 (3.18x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
5-6
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
5-6
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$121K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 9
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
180-199
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
180-199
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 10
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 14 more outcomes
200 or more
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
200 or more
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$108K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 11
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
160-179
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
160-179
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$104K
Trade this on Polymarket
9-10
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
9-10
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$67K
Trade this on Polymarket
7-8
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
7-8
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$165K
Trade this on Polymarket
16
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
16
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
11-12
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
11-12
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
13-14
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
13-14
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
15-16
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
15-16
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: spacex.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: SpaceX

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 6
  • Above 7
  • 5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 6 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many launches will SpaceX have in November?". Above 6 leads at 98%. Next is Above 7 at 89%. $940K has traded across 24 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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