The Prediction Markets

How many SpaceX launches in November 2026?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 24 days
Traded
$970K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Above 120 99%

Next is Above 6 at 98%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 120
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 120
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$591
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
13
70.9%
Polymarket 93.5%polled, 7 min agoPolymarket 5.2%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
13
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$392
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
13
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 140
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 140
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$104K
Trade this on Kalshi
4
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
4
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
5
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
5
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 145
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 145
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 25 more outcomes
3
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
3
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 150
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 150
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Kalshi
15
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
15
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$141
Trade this on Polymarket
14
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
14
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$152
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 10
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 160
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 160
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$192K
Trade this on Kalshi
16+
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
16+
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Polymarket
6
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
6
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 170
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$97K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 180
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$139K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 190
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 190
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Kalshi
1 or below
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
1 or below
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
2
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
2
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
7
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
7
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
8
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
8
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
9
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
9
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
10 or above
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
10 or above
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 210
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 210
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: spacex.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Aviation Administration, SpaceX, SpaceX

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 120
  • Above 6
  • Above 7

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 120 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many SpaceX launches in November 2026?". Above 120 leads at 99%. Next is Above 6 at 98%. $970K has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches. In the case of missing or erroneous data from spacex.com, this market will remain open until December 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, to allow for updates. If spacex.com has not updated by December 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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