This market has closed
Trading ended on Mar 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 204 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
350k–375k99.7%100%99.9¢ bid, — askpolled, 4908 h agoNo ask350k–375k99.7%Polymarket 100%polled, 4908 h ago
- Contract
- 350k–375k
- Last price
- 100%
- As of
- Polled 204 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99.9¢
- Volume
- $178K
350k0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4908 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)350k0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4908 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
- Contract
- 350k
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 204 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $290K
375k–400k0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4908 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)375k–400k0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4908 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
- Contract
- 375k–400k
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 204 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $71K
400k–425k0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4908 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)400k–425k0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4908 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
- Contract
- 400k–425k
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 204 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $46K
425k–450k0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4908 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)425k–450k0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4908 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
- Contract
- 425k–450k
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 204 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $64K
450k–475k0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4908 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)450k–475k0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4908 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
- Contract
- 450k–475k
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 204 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $170K
475k–500k0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4908 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)475k–500k0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4908 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
- Contract
- 475k–500k
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 204 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $46K
500k+0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4908 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)500k+0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4908 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
- Contract
- 500k+
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 204 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $28K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 350k–375k
- 350k
- 375k–400k
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?". 350k–375k last traded at 99.7%. Next is 350k at 0.1%. $893K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 31, 2026.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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