The Prediction Markets

How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?

Closed
Jun 30, 2026
Traded
$76K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 30, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 125 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
450k–475k
44.2%
Polymarket 40.2%(44.2% fair)polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 45.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $221 (2.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
450k–475k
Last price
40.2%
Fair, margin removed
44.2%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
45.3¢
Sell Yes
35.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$221 (2.21x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
425k–450k
29.1%
Polymarket 26.5%(29.1% fair)polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
425k–450k
Last price
26.5%
Fair, margin removed
29.1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
475k+
10.8%
Polymarket 9.9%(10.8% fair)polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 11.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $855 (8.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
475k+
Last price
9.9%
Fair, margin removed
10.8%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
11.7¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$855 (8.55x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
400k–425k
10.7%
Polymarket 9.7%(10.7% fair)polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 12.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $775 (7.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
400k–425k
Last price
9.7%
Fair, margin removed
10.7%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
12.9¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$775 (7.75x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
375k–400k
1.6%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
375k–400k
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
350k–375k
1.4%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
350k–375k
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
325k–350k
1%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
325k–350k
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
300k–325k
0.9%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
300k–325k
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
300k
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
300k
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 450k–475k
  • 425k–450k
  • 475k+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?". 450k–475k last traded at 44.2%. Next is 425k–450k at 29.1%. $76K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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