The Prediction Markets

How many US births in 2026?

Closes
May 1, 2027, in 6 months
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

3.53M–3.56M 39.3%

Next is 3.56M–3.59M at 33%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

3.53M–3.56M 39.3%3.56M–3.59M 33%3.59M–3.62M 11%3.65M+ 7.9%3.62M–3.65M 5.6%2 others 3.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
3.53M–3.56M
39.3%
Polymarket 37.5%(39.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.53M–3.56M
Last price
37.5%
Fair, margin removed
39.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.56M–3.59M
33%
Polymarket 31.5%(33% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.56M–3.59M
Last price
31.5%
Fair, margin removed
33%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.59M–3.62M
11%
Polymarket 10.5%(11% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.59M–3.62M
Last price
10.5%
Fair, margin removed
11%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.65M+
7.9%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.65M+
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$654
Trade this on Polymarket
3.62M–3.65M
5.6%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.62M–3.65M
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$612
Trade this on Polymarket
3.50M–3.53M
2.9%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.50M–3.53M
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.50M
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.50M
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 3.53M–3.56M
  • 3.56M–3.59M
  • 3.59M–3.62M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How many US births in 2026?". 3.53M–3.56M leads at 39.3%. Next is 3.56M–3.59M at 33%. $16K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by May 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the total number of births in the United States in 2026, as reported in the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) annual provisional births report for 2026, meaning the first NCHS report that presents provisional birth data for the full calendar year 2026, regardless of its exact title or format (see 2025 example, “Births: Provisional Data for 2025”: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr043.pdf), estimated to be released in April 2027. Provisional counts or estimates covering only part of 2026, and full-year figures published only in data dashboards, data files, or statistical tables rather than in such a report, will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The report is expected to be made available here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htm If NCHS does not release its annual provisional births report for 2026 by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: The relevant data will be the total number of births in the United States in 2026 as stated in the annual provisional births report for 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of this report will not be considered for this market’s resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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