The Prediction Markets

How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$141K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

95B to $105B 28.8%

Next is 75B to $85B at 27.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

95B to $105B 28.8%75B to $85B 27.9%85B to $95B 27.8%65B to $75B 5.1%105B to $115B 4.5%4 others 5.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
95B to $105B
28.8%
Polymarket 29%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 29.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $340 (3.40x)
Polymarket
Contract
95B to $105B
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
29.4¢
Sell Yes
28.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$340 (3.40x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
75B to $85B
27.9%
Polymarket 28.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 29.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $339 (3.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
75B to $85B
Last price
28.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
29.5¢
Sell Yes
26.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$339 (3.39x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
85B to $95B
27.8%
Polymarket 28%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
85B to $95B
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Polymarket
65B to $75B
5.1%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
65B to $75B
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
105B to $115B
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
105B to $115B
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
115B to $125B
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
115B to $125B
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
65B
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
65B
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
135B+
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
135B+
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
125B to $135B
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
125B to $135B
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 95B to $105B
  • 75B to $85B
  • 85B to $95B

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO?". 95B to $105B leads at 28.8%. Next is 75B to $85B at 27.9%. $141K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by Anthropic in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. Shares sold in any private placement concurrent with the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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