The Prediction Markets

Iowa Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$31K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.10M 95%

Next is Above 1.16M at 92%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 1.10M
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.10M
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.16M
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.16M
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.22M
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.22M
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.28M
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.28M
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.34M
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.34M
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.40M
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.40M
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$271
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.46M
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.46M
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$541
Trade this on Kalshi
1.45M-1.5M
30.6%
Polymarket 30.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 32.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $305 (3.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.45M-1.5M
Last price
30.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
32.8¢
Sell Yes
28.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$305 (3.05x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.4M-1.45M
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.4M-1.45M
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.58M
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.58M
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 1.52M
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.52M
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$693
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.64M
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.64M
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$137
Trade this on Kalshi
1.25M-1.3M
12.7%
Polymarket 12.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.25M-1.3M
Last price
12.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.2M-1.25M
10.2%
Polymarket 10.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.2M-1.25M
Last price
10.2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
10.9¢
Sell Yes
9.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$917 (9.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.3M-1.35M
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.3M-1.35M
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.70M
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.70M
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Kalshi
1.35M-1.4M
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.35M-1.4M
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.5M-1.55M
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 11.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $901 (9.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5M-1.55M
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
11.1¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$901 (9.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.6M+
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.6M+
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
4.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.2M
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.2M
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.55M-1.6M
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.55M-1.6M
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Iowa Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.10M
  • Above 1.16M
  • Above 1.22M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 1.10M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Iowa Senate Election: Turnout". Above 1.10M leads at 95%. Next is Above 1.16M at 92%. $31K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets