The Prediction Markets

Israeli Legislative Election: 2nd Place

Closes
Oct 28, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$157K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Likud 42.2%

Next is Yashar at 37.1%. The venues differ most on Shas (Polymarket 0.1%, Kalshi 2%), a 1.9-point gap.

Likud 42.2%Yashar 37.1%Together 2.8%Religious Zionist Party–Zehut 2%The Reservists and the Economic Party 2%26 others 13.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
LikudArb
42.2%
Polymarket 67%(54.9% fair)polled, 57s agoKalshi 28%(11.7% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 69%(11.7% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Likud
Last price
67%
Fair, margin removed
54.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Likud
Last price
28%
Fair, margin removed
11.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Likud
Last price
69%
Fair, margin removed
11.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 30¢ and selling on Polymarket at 66¢ nets 3600 bps before fees.

YasharArb
37.1%
Polymarket 29.5%(24.2% fair)polled, 57s agoKalshi 73%(30.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 31%(30.5% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yashar
Last price
29.5%
Fair, margin removed
24.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yashar
Last price
73%
Fair, margin removed
30.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Yashar
Last price
31%
Fair, margin removed
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 31¢ and selling on Kalshi at 71¢ nets 4000 bps before fees.

Together
2.8%
Polymarket 4.1%(3.4% fair)polled, 57s agoKalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 5%(0.4% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Together
Last price
4.1%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Together
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Together
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Religious Zionist Party–Zehut
2%
Kalshi 3%(1.3% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Religious Zionist Party–Zehut
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Reservists and the Economic Party
2%
Kalshi 3%(1.3% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reservists–New Economic Party
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)
1.3%
Kalshi 2%(0.8% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
United Torah Judaism
1%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 2%(0.8% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
United Torah Judaism
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$411
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
United Torah Judaism
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

A Place for All of Us
0.7%
Kalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
A Place for All of Us
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Haredi Public
0.7%
Kalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haredi Public
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel First
0.7%
Kalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel First
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 21 more outcomes
New Economic Party
0.7%
Kalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
New Economic Party
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Noam for Israel
0.7%
Kalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Noam for Israel
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Blue and White
0.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Blue and White
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Blue and White
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Ra'am
0.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 57s agoKalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ra'am
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ra'am
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Shas
0.6%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 57s agoKalshi 2%(0.8% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shas
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$552
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shas
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Amcha Yisrael
0.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amcha Yisrael
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Polymarket
Noam
0.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Noam
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$332
Trade this on Polymarket
People of Israel
0.6%
Kalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
People of Israel
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Religious Zionist Party
0.6%
Kalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Religious Zionist Party
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Unity
0.6%
Kalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Unity
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Zehut
0.6%
Kalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zehut
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Zionist Home–The Reservists
0.6%
Kalshi 1%(0.4% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zionist Home–The Reservists
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Otzma Yehudit
0.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 57s agoKalshi 2%(0.8% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Otzma Yehudit
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Otzma Yehudit
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Yisrael Beiteinu
0.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 57s agoKalshi 2%(0.8% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yisrael Beiteinu
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$659
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yisrael Beiteinu
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

The Democrats
0.4%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 57s agoKalshi 2%(0.8% fair)polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Democrats
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Democrats
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

The Reservists and the Economic Party
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Reservists and the Economic Party
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bennett 2026
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bennett 2026
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
Joint List
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joint List
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$824
Trade this on Polymarket
National Unity
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
National Unity
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$917
Trade this on Kalshi
RZP-Zehut
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
RZP-Zehut
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$874
Trade this on Polymarket
Yesh Atid
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yesh Atid
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Yashar on Polymarket at 31¢, sell on Kalshi at 71¢ (4000 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Central Elections Committee, Central Elections Committee
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Likud
  • Yashar
  • Together

Live prices for Likud

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Israeli Legislative Election: 2nd Place". Likud leads at 42.2%. Next is Yashar at 37.1%. $157K has traded across 31 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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