The Prediction Markets

Israeli Legislative Election: 4th Place

Closes
Oct 28, 2026, in 5 days
Traded
$157K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Yashar 35.8%

Next is The Democrats at 30.8%. The venues differ most on Shas (Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 14%), a 12-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
YasharArb
35.8%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 71%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yashar
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$692
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yashar
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Yashar
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 70¢ nets 6940 bps before fees.

The Democrats
30.8%
Polymarket 30%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 33%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Democrats
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Democrats
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 29¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 33¢.

ShasArb
22.6%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shas
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shas
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 21¢ and selling on Polymarket at 24¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Joint List
15.1%
Polymarket 15.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $637 (6.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joint List
Last price
15.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15.7¢
Sell Yes
14.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$637 (6.37x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Otzma Yehudit
14.1%
Polymarket 13.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 16%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Otzma Yehudit
Last price
13.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Otzma Yehudit
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 16¢.

LikudArb
12.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 24%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Likud
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$448
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Likud
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Likud
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 24¢ nets 2390 bps before fees.

Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
TogetherArb
7.8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoKalshi 15%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Together
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Together
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Together
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 6¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Yisrael Beiteinu
5.3%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yisrael Beiteinu
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yisrael Beiteinu
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$945
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.9¢.

United Torah Judaism
1.9%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
United Torah Judaism
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$381
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
United Torah Judaism
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Show 12 more outcomes
People of Israel
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
People of Israel
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Religious Zionist Party–Zehut
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Religious Zionist Party–Zehut
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Reservists and the Economic Party
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reservists–New Economic Party
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Blue and White
0.8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Blue and White
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$965
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Blue and White
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Ra'am
0.8%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ra'am
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$570
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ra'am
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Amcha Yisrael
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amcha Yisrael
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Noam
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Noam
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$859
Trade this on Polymarket
RZP-Zehut
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
RZP-Zehut
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$527
Trade this on Polymarket
The Reservists and the Economic Party
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Reservists and the Economic Party
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Polymarket
Bennett 2026
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bennett 2026
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
National Unity
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
National Unity
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$917
Trade this on Kalshi
Yesh Atid
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yesh Atid
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Yashar on Polymarket at 0.6¢, sell on Kalshi at 70¢ (6940 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Central Elections Committee, Central Elections Committee
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yashar
  • The Democrats
  • Shas

Live prices for Yashar

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Israeli Legislative Election: 4th Place". Yashar leads at 35.8%. Next is The Democrats at 30.8%. $157K has traded across 22 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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